进出口数据点评（2025年1-2月）：关税冲击尚未完全显现

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - In the first two months of 2025, China's total import and export value decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, amounting to 909.37 billion USD, with exports at 539.94 billion USD (up 2.3%) and imports at 369.43 billion USD (down 8.4%). The trade surplus increased by 36.9% year-on-year to 170.52 billion USD [2][3] Summary by Sections Export Analysis - Export growth has significantly declined by 8.4 percentage points to 2.3% compared to December 2024, primarily due to base effects and fewer working days. The impact of the U.S. tariff policy is not yet fully reflected, as the tariffs were implemented shortly before the Chinese New Year [3][7] - Exports of raw materials and labor-intensive consumer goods have seen a notable decline, while machinery, electrical products, and high-tech products continue to grow at a faster pace. The export growth of steel, aluminum, and refined oil products has decreased [3][7] - The export growth rates to major trading partners have mostly declined, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, the U.S., and Latin America decreasing to 5.7%, 0.6%, 2.3%, and 3.2% respectively [7] Import Analysis - Import growth has turned negative, dropping by 8.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points from December 2024, influenced by the production off-season and slow post-holiday resumption of work [8] - The decline in import volume is reflected in the prices of international commodities, with the CRB index showing significant positive year-on-year changes, indicating a contraction in import quantities [8] - Imports of crude oil and fuel products continue to shrink, while the import growth of machinery and high-tech products has slowed, suggesting overall stagnation in industrial production [8] Forward-Looking Insights - The impact of the U.S. tariff policies is expected to intensify throughout the year, putting pressure on China's exports. This includes direct impacts on exports to the U.S. and uncertainties in the global trade environment, which may lead to a contraction in overall trade demand [10] - Short-term "export rush" and resilient demand from non-U.S. trading partners may still support export growth rates. With comprehensive policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, import growth may see some recovery [10]