每周观察：光伏领跑者历史复盘，行业后续将向什么方向演进？-2025-03-12

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for companies focusing on advanced N-type technologies such as BC, TOPCon3.0, and HJT, indicating potential investment opportunities in these areas [4]. Core Insights - The current industry environment is reminiscent of the 2015-2017 period, with a new "Leading Edge Plan" launched in Shaanxi province that could help address supply-demand imbalances if implemented nationwide [3][53]. - The report highlights the advantages of different N-type battery technologies, noting that BC excels in low back reflection scenarios, while TOPCon and HJT perform better in high reflection environments [4][50]. - The previous "Leading Edge Plan" successfully increased the penetration of single crystal and PERC technologies, leading to a significant reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) [2][34]. Summary by Sections Historical Context of the Leading Edge Plan - The initial Leading Edge Plan was introduced to address supply-demand imbalances and slow technological advancements in the solar industry, with project scales of 1GW, 5.5GW, and 6.5GW from 2015 to 2017, representing 7.8%, 15.9%, and 12.2% of new installations respectively [2][17]. - The plan led to a significant increase in the efficiency of solar technologies, particularly single crystal and PERC, while also facilitating the exit of inefficient production capacities [2][34]. Current Industry Environment - The current state of the solar industry mirrors the conditions of 2015-2017, with a focus on clearing outdated production capacities rather than further cost reductions, as the cost of solar energy has already reached competitive levels [3][49]. - The report emphasizes the need for a balance between supply and demand, as the industry is currently experiencing a phase of oversupply and declining profitability [3][46]. Recommendations for Investment - Companies that are leading in the development of BC, TOPCon3.0, and HJT technologies are recommended for investment, as these technologies are expected to dominate in various application scenarios [4][56]. - Specific companies mentioned include Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar, and JinkoSolar, which are positioned well within the N-type technology landscape [4][56].