蔡含篇：基数效应影响，进、出口额增速双收缩

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a dual contraction in both export and import growth rates due to high base effects, with exports growing by 2.3% and imports declining by 8.4% in January-February 2025 compared to the previous year [8][19] - The external environment is described as complex and variable, suggesting that foreign trade growth may experience fluctuations in the future [22] Summary by Sections Export Analysis - In January-February 2025, China's total export value reached 539.94 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, which is a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from 2024 [8][10] - High base effects from 2024, where exports grew by 7.1%, are identified as the primary reason for the decline in growth rate [10][12] - Traditional export categories such as bags and footwear saw significant declines, with footwear exports down by 18.3% [16] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 60% of total exports, growing by 4.2% [16][18] Import Analysis - The total import value for January-February 2025 was 369.43 billion USD, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, marking a 9.5 percentage point drop from 2024 [19][21] - The report attributes the decline in import growth to high base effects and ongoing domestic economic structural adjustments, particularly a reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities [19][21] - Specific imports from major trading partners showed varied growth rates, with imports from the US increasing by 2.7% while those from the EU and Japan decreased [19][21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the external environment will remain complex, with both risks and opportunities for exports in 2025, influenced by political changes in major trading partners [22] - For imports, a gradual recovery is expected due to domestic economic stabilization policies, although challenges remain from the real estate market and global trade barriers [24]