中债策略周报2025.3.3-2025.3.9-2025-03-11

Key Points Summary Group 1: Market Performance Review - The bond market experienced a significant rise in yields across all maturities, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds increasing by 6 basis points to 1.79% and 1.98% respectively, while the 1-year government bond remained stable at 1.59% [3][10][13]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals and Monetary Policy - In January-February, exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year, a notable decline from the previous reading of 10.7%, primarily due to "export rush" overstretching demand and high base effects [6][36]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell sharply by over 1 percentage point to -0.7% in February, influenced by the Spring Festival timing, with the adjusted CPI reflecting weak domestic demand at 0.1% [6][46]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net withdrawal of 881.3 billion yuan this week, with reverse repos totaling 777.9 billion yuan and maturing repos at 1.6592 trillion yuan [44]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to face challenges due to the current economic conditions, with a defensive strategy and tactical trading being recommended as optimal approaches [6][46]. - Two main strategies are suggested: first, focusing on certificates of deposit and short-term bonds as a potential allocation window due to easing liquidity; second, implementing a quick in-and-out strategy for long-term bonds within the identified ranges of 1.7%-1.75% for 10-year bonds and 1.9%-2% for 30-year bonds [6][46]. Group 4: Issuance and Funding Market - The total issuance of local government bonds this week was 217.5 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 208 billion yuan, including 37.6 billion yuan of new general bonds and 13 billion yuan of new special bonds [18]. - The issuance of government bonds reached 398.2 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 358.2 billion yuan [18]. Group 5: Funding Market Conditions - The funding market showed signs of marginal recovery, although prices remained high, with the weighted average rate for R001 fluctuating between 1.74% and 1.81%, down 21 basis points week-on-week [23][25]. - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased to 5.72 trillion yuan, recovering to the average level seen in January 2025 [25].