中山证券宏观经济数据点评：2月外贸增速和价格指数整体偏弱

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [21] Core Insights - The overall trade growth rate in China for the first two months of 2025 is weak, with a total import and export value of 6.54 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Adjusting for fewer working days, the growth rate is 1.7% [2][6] - The industrial producer price index (IPP) shows a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in February 2025, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial prices [3][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) also reflects a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in February 2025, with food prices dropping significantly [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Major Economic Data Analysis - Import and Export Data: In the first two months of 2025, China's total import and export value was 6.54 trillion RMB, with exports at 3.88 trillion RMB (up 3.4%) and imports at 2.66 trillion RMB (down 7.3%). In USD terms, the total was 909.37 billion USD, a decrease of 2.4% [6][3] - Industrial Producer Price Index: The IPP decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in February 2025, with production material prices down 2.5%. The average for January-February shows a similar decline [7][8] - Consumer Price Index: The CPI fell by 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, with food prices down 3.3%. The average CPI for January-February shows a slight decline of 0.1% [9][10] 2. Economic Commentary - The weak trade growth and price indices indicate a slow recovery in the domestic macroeconomic environment. The report highlights the need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, particularly in consumer spending, to create a positive feedback loop for economic growth [3][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing the weak consumption pattern, which negatively impacts corporate profits and investment activities, thereby hindering overall economic recovery [3][16]