工程机械系列报告：工程机械内需为何超预期？持续性怎么看？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand for excavators has exceeded expectations, with a 51% year-on-year growth in sales during January and February 2025, indicating a strong recovery in the market [1][10]. - The report anticipates a cyclical upturn in the domestic market, as the sales volume of core products has dropped by 70%-80% compared to the previous peak, alleviating the base pressure significantly [3][20]. - The report highlights that the demand for equipment replacement and upgrades will provide sustained support for the cyclical upturn, with a new round of replacement cycle beginning [3][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Demand Performance - In January and February 2025, excavator sales reached 11,640 units in February, a 99.4% increase year-on-year, with total sales for the two months at 17,045 units, reflecting a 51.4% increase [10][12]. - Other machinery types also showed positive performance despite the impact of the Spring Festival in January, with loaders and graders experiencing year-on-year growth of 23.9% and 5.7%, respectively [2][10]. Market Cycle Analysis - The domestic engineering machinery market has experienced four years of decline, and the report suggests that it is nearing a bottom, with expectations for recovery in 2025 [3][20]. - The report notes that significant investment in infrastructure and construction projects is expected to commence in the second half of 2024, which will further boost demand for engineering machinery [21][22]. Replacement Demand - The report emphasizes that the demand for equipment replacement is expected to increase, driven by the aging of machinery and government policies aimed at phasing out older, more polluting models [28][34]. - The increase in the export of second-hand machinery has also contributed to the reduction of domestic inventory, enhancing the certainty of replacement demand [39][40]. Regional Performance - The report identifies regions with strong growth, particularly those with strict environmental regulations and significant water conservancy projects, such as Heilongjiang, Hainan, and Guangxi, which saw year-on-year growth exceeding 40% in 2024 [15][16]. - The performance of different regions varies significantly, influenced by local investment conditions and project commencement timelines [15][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as XCMG and SANY, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand and have strong profit margins [45].