美国CPI通胀数据点评（2025年2月）：美联储或将重启宽松

Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of buying U.S. Treasury bonds on dips, indicating a positive outlook for the bond market as the Federal Reserve may resume easing policies [4][12]. Core Insights - U.S. CPI inflation data for February 2025 showed a decline, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.8%, below market expectations of 2.9% [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts mid-year, with a total of two cuts (50 basis points) anticipated for the year [4][9]. - Consumer confidence has significantly weakened, as indicated by the University of Michigan's consumer expectations index falling to 64.7, the lowest since December 2023 [7]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - February's CPI inflation decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8%, while core CPI fell to 3.1% [4][5]. - The inflation peak has passed, with a notable decline in consumer spending and a potential contraction in Q1 2025 [7][19]. - The report highlights that service prices are supported by housing costs and wage growth, while core service price growth has slowed to 4.1% year-on-year [7][8]. Strategy Recommendations - The report recommends buying U.S. Treasuries when the 5-year yield approaches 4.3% and the 10-year yield approaches 4.5% [12][13]. - A shift towards a neutral foreign exchange trading strategy is suggested, with a long-term view of buying the U.S. dollar on dips [12][13]. Fiscal Outlook - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.15 trillion from October 2024 to February 2025, a 38.5% increase year-on-year [9]. - By March to September 2025, the fiscal deficit is projected to be limited to $720 billion, a decrease of 28.4% compared to the previous year [9].