Key Points - The report indicates that the long-end interest rates in the Chinese bond market continued to rise, with the 10-year government bond increasing by 6 basis points to 1.85% and the 30-year bond rising by 10 basis points to 2.07%. In contrast, the short-end rates stabilized and fell, with the 1-year government bond dropping to 1.56% [3][9][13] - The report highlights that the social financing (社融) increased by 2.2 trillion yuan in February, which is 737.4 billion yuan more than the previous year. The government bonds were a significant support item, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1 trillion yuan [5][30][46] - The report suggests that despite the potential for a looser monetary environment in March and April, the extent of this shift will depend on the central bank's stance. It recommends a defensive strategy and wave trading as the best approach in the current challenging trading environment [5][46] Bond Market Performance Review - The long-end interest rates showed a continued upward trend, while short-end rates stabilized. Specifically, the 10-year and 30-year government bonds saw increases of 6 and 10 basis points, respectively [3][9] - The report notes that the yield curve for government bonds has steepened, with minor adjustments in yields for bonds with maturities of 7 years or less, while longer maturities experienced more significant increases [13][18] Bond Market Issuance Situation - The report details that the total issuance of government bonds this week was 3.378 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 709 million yuan. Additionally, local government bonds issued amounted to 867 million yuan, with a net issuance of 490 million yuan [18][19] - The issuance of policy bank bonds reached 1.33 billion yuan, with a net issuance of 695 million yuan [18] Funding Market Situation - The report indicates that the funding market remained stable despite the central bank's net withdrawal of 3.972 billion yuan. The R001 rate fluctuated between 1.77% and 1.81%, with a weekly average slightly rising to 1.79% [21][23] - The report also mentions that the weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit was 2.05%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [24] Macroeconomic Environment Tracking - The report emphasizes that the economic recovery remains fragile, with weak credit demand and delayed debt funding indicating that further fiscal policy support may be necessary [5][46] - It also notes that the M1 growth rate fell to 0.1%, primarily due to a decline in the growth rate of household demand deposits, suggesting a shift in asset allocation preferences among residents [41][46]
中债策略周报-2025-03-17
Zhe Shang Guo Ji·2025-03-17 14:42