Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant restructuring of supply and demand relationships in the food and beverage industry, emphasizing the importance of cost-effectiveness and the rapid development of discount retail formats in China [3][4][5] - The report analyzes the evolution of discount retail formats in Japan and Europe, noting that while hard discount formats face challenges in Japan, they thrive in Europe, particularly with companies like Aldi achieving global expansion [4][5] - The report suggests that the discount retail sector is poised for growth in China, driven by consumer demand for value and the oversupply of products, with a focus on snack wholesale and discount supermarkets [4][5] Summary by Sections Discount Retail Development Status - Discount retail formats include hard discount, soft discount, and low-price stores, each with distinct characteristics and market dynamics [14][16] - Global discount retail development varies by country, influenced by local consumer habits and economic conditions [15][16] Japan's Discount Retail Development - Soft discount leader Don Quijote has expanded significantly, with 718 stores as of June 2023, and has maintained a strong growth trajectory [18][22] - The company employs a unique business model focusing on convenience, affordability, and enjoyment, which differentiates it from other retailers [18][22] - The report notes that soft discount formats in Japan have thrived due to the high turnover of seasonal and surplus goods, creating a treasure-hunt shopping experience [38][41] Europe's Discount Retail Landscape - Hard discount formats dominate in Germany, with Aldi being a key player, achieving a penetration rate of 17% [4][16] - Aldi's global expansion strategy has proven successful, with significant market shares in the US, UK, and Australia [4][5] China's Discount Retail Trends - The report indicates that the discount retail sector in China is rapidly evolving, with snack wholesale and discount supermarkets gaining traction [4][5] - The shift towards discount formats is driven by a combination of consumer rationality and an oversupply of products, leading to a revolution in retail efficiency [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Wancheng Group, a leader in the snack wholesale industry, and Three Squirrels, which is expanding its offline community retail presence [5]
基于日德标杆折扣业态复盘：供需关系重构，关注折扣业态供应链革新机遇
方正证券·2025-03-18 05:38