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上涨行情进入下半场,A股补涨港股,大消费短期领涨
Haitong International·2025-03-17 01:52

Investment Focus - The report indicates that the Hong Kong and A-share markets require approximately one week of consolidation to solidify positions, with expectations of a market upward trajectory following the Two Sessions [1][7] - Following a market correction, a preliminary breakout occurred led by the financial and consumer sectors, with blue-chip stocks experiencing a catch-up rally while the technology sector remains in consolidation [1][7] - The large consumer sector is expected to continue leading the market, with A-shares catching up to Hong Kong stocks, while the technology sector may require another one to two weeks of consolidation before resuming its leadership [1][7] Key Data Points - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points, indicating a continued withdrawal of funds from the bond market into equities, while the US-China yield spread narrowed to 2.46 [2][10] - Southbound capital saw a significant inflow of HK$61.6 billion, maintaining a 22% share of total turnover, with notable purchases in Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, and Kuaishou [2][10] - Employment indicators show a recovery in the job market, with BOSS Zhipin's first-quarter guidance maintaining high growth [2][10] Consumer Sector Insights - The report highlights that the large consumer sector, supported by policies, is performing better, particularly traditional consumer goods and fertility-related sectors at lower valuations [3][8] - The sustainability of the large consumer rally will depend on upcoming government announcements regarding consumption promotion and the progress of consumption and fertility stimulus policies [3][8] A-Shares vs. Hong Kong Stocks - The report argues that A-shares may outperform Hong Kong stocks in the second half of the rally due to the stronger ability of the A-share securities sector to drive incremental funds and a higher proportion of traditional consumer stocks benefiting from policy support [3][8]