海外宏观周报（2025年第10期）：美国经济衰退与滞胀预期的交织-2025-03-18

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the intertwining expectations of recession and stagflation in the US economy, with significant market divergence observed in global trading [2][10] - Recent macroeconomic indicators, including lower-than-expected CPI and PPI, suggest a decline in short-term demand and increasing economic downturn pressure [2][10] - The report emphasizes that inflation expectations are rising despite short-term inflation pressures decreasing, indicating a complex economic landscape [12][28] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The US stock market indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones, experienced declines of 2.3%, 2.4%, and 3.1% respectively, while European markets also turned bearish due to recession concerns [10] - The US CPI for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9%, indicating a cooling in inflation [10][23] - Core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, which was below the anticipated 3.2% [10][23] Key Data - The US labor market shows signs of weakening, with January wholesale sales declining by 2.3% for durable goods and 0.3% for non-durable goods [28] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped significantly from 64.7 to 57.9, reflecting decreased consumer confidence [28] - The report notes that the labor market has reached a near-equilibrium state, with job openings and labor shortages being adjusted downwards [11][21] Important Events - The US Congress passed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, maintaining federal operations until September 30, 2025 [49] - The EU has implemented countermeasures against US tariffs, indicating ongoing trade tensions [10][49] - Japan's wage growth reached its highest level since 1992, highlighting significant economic shifts [10][49] Market Trading Patterns - The report identifies a mixed trading pattern in recent days, with recession and inflation themes dominating the market [15][20] - The bond market reflects investor concerns about long-term inflation, with rising inflation expectations despite short-term indicators showing a decline [12][28] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be stronger than in 2018, as producers face limited capacity to absorb costs [13] - The interplay between rising inflation and economic slowdown will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of recession versus stagflation [13]