2025年1~2月宏观数据点评：开局向新向好，政策要给早给足

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the economy, with an expected GDP growth of approximately 5.3% in the first quarter and around 5.0% for the entire year [7][54]. Core Viewpoints - The economic recovery is supported by various policies, improvements in market expectations, and confidence, leading to a rebound in major supply and demand indicators in early 2025 [4][54]. - There is a notable imbalance in the economic structure, with supply outpacing demand, large enterprises outperforming small and medium-sized enterprises, and infrastructure manufacturing outpacing real estate investment [4][54]. - The report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to focus on stimulating consumption, strengthening technology, deepening reforms, stabilizing the real estate market, and improving people's livelihoods [7][54]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February 2025, industrial production maintained a growth rate of 5.9%, supported by policies and investment demand [10][49]. - The service sector showed a slight decline in growth to 5.6%, attributed to high base effects and weak domestic service consumption [14][49]. Consumption - Social retail sales increased by 4% in early 2025, driven by policies encouraging consumption and a strong performance in certain categories like home appliances and communication devices [23][49]. - The report forecasts a moderate recovery in consumption, estimating a 5% growth for the year, influenced by macroeconomic policies and consumer sentiment [24][49]. Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% in early 2025, with infrastructure investment rebounding and real estate investment showing a narrowing decline [25][49]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0%, supported by new policies and emerging sectors, while private investment remains sluggish [31][49]. Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with sales and investment showing signs of improvement, although inventory pressures remain significant [33][49]. - The report highlights that the real estate market's recovery will be gradual, with demand expected to improve under sustained policy support [34][49]. GDP Forecast - The report anticipates a GDP growth of 5.3% in the first quarter and around 5.0% for the year, reflecting a balanced recovery in domestic demand and a weakening external environment [54][57].