China Securities·2025-03-17 08:52Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the A-share market, highlighting a "confidence reassessment bull market" characteristic as it has shown independent performance during a period of decline in US stocks [1][2][4]. Core Insights - The A-share market has demonstrated resilience, achieving a new total market capitalization high and surpassing the 3400-point index mark, marking the first time in nearly 20 years that it has moved independently of US market declines [2][4]. - The current spring market rally has reached historical average levels in terms of duration and space, with the average spring rally lasting about 38 trading days and an average gain of 19.6% since 2008 [2][10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation, particularly focusing on cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, construction materials, real estate, electronics, telecommunications, media, computers, and machinery [1][3][21]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market has shown a significant independent rally during a period of US stock market decline, with the total market capitalization reaching new highs [2][4]. - The current spring rally has lasted 39 trading days with a maximum gain of approximately 14%, indicating potential for further growth [14][26]. Sector Focus - The report suggests a short-term rebalancing towards sectors that are experiencing price increases, such as certain metals (antimony, tin) and construction materials, which are showing signs of price improvement [3][23]. - The "AI+" theme remains a core focus for mid-term investment, with strong growth potential and investment value being highlighted [25][26]. Policy and Economic Factors - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumption, including birth incentives, are expected to positively impact consumer sectors, which have lagged behind in previous gains [21][24]. - The report notes that the current economic environment supports a recovery in demand and a reduction in supply, contributing to profitability improvements [23][26].