3月FOMC会议：以静制动的美联储态度并不鹰派

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% and further slowed the pace of quantitative tightening (QT) from $25 billion per month to $5 billion per month, nearing a halt[3] - Despite rising concerns about stagflation, the Fed officials still guide for two rate cuts within the year, indicating a dovish stance[1] - The Fed's economic projections lowered GDP growth from 2.1% to 1.7% and raised PCE inflation expectations from 2.5% to 2.7%[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate forecast was adjusted from 4.3% to 4.4%, reflecting concerns about economic slowdown due to tariff impacts[1] - The Fed anticipates that Trump's tariffs and other economic reforms could reduce economic growth by 0.4 percentage points and increase nominal inflation by 0.3 percentage points[1] - Current economic data shows signs of marginal weakening, but the distance to a recession remains significant[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4.8 basis points to 4.237%, while the 2-year yield dropped by 7.17 basis points to 3.966%[4] - The market's key focus remains on Trump's policies, with expectations of inflation and economic downturn continuing to influence market sentiment[4] - CME data indicates that traders expect two rate cuts in 2025, aligning with the Fed's projections[4]