美联储3月议息会议点评报告：美联储按下缩表减速键：3月决议如何重塑资产定价逻辑

Group 1: Economic Projections - The projected GDP growth for 2025 is 3% in Q1 and 2.1% in Q4[8] - The PCE inflation rate is expected to be 2.7% in Q1 2025 and 2.5% in Q4 2026[8] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.4% in Q1 2025 and 4.3% in Q4 2026[8] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[4] - By mid-2025, there is an 80.60% probability of rates being between 425-450 basis points[10] - The probability of rates being between 375-400 basis points is 86.00% by October 2026[10] Group 3: Market Insights - The report indicates a significant focus on inflation control and economic stability[4] - The analysis suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the FOMC's decisions regarding interest rates[10] - The overall sentiment reflects cautious optimism regarding economic recovery and growth prospects[4]