美联储3月如期继续暂停降息，强调经济不确定性增加

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in March, marking the second consecutive meeting without a rate reduction, indicating a dovish stance for the year[1] - The Fed's economic growth forecast for this year was significantly lowered to 1.7% from 2.1%, aligning closely with a previous prediction of 1.5%[3] - The unemployment rate forecast was slightly adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% for this year[3] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Uncertainty - The core PCE inflation rate expectation was raised by 0.3 percentage points to 2.8%, consistent with previous forecasts[3] - The Fed's statement reflected increasing concerns over economic uncertainty, removing previous language that suggested balanced risks to employment and inflation[3] - Powell downplayed the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, suggesting that their effects would be transitory rather than persistent[3] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook - The expectation is for the Fed to potentially restart rate cuts as early as June, with a total of 2-3 cuts anticipated for the year, each by 25 basis points[2] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction will slow down starting in April, with the monthly redemption cap for U.S. Treasuries lowered from $25 billion to $5 billion[3] - The economic outlook remains cautious, with risks of both inflation and recession increasing, creating a dilemma for the Fed between combating inflation and supporting growth[4]