瑞银：拼多多业绩解读

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for PDD Holdings Inc with a 12-month price target of US $193.00 [5][9]. Core Insights - PDD's revenue for 4Q24 increased by 24% YoY to Rmb111 billion, although it missed estimates by 6%. The transaction services segment grew by 33% YoY but also missed expectations by 12% due to lower domestic commission rates and a shift in Temu's product markup [2][3]. - The domestic marketplace showed steady growth with online marketing services increasing by 17% YoY, indicating healthy GMV growth estimated at 17-18%. The overall take rate is expected to improve slightly from 4.5% in 3Q to 4.7% in 4Q [3]. - Temu's overseas business is transitioning to a semi-managed model, contributing approximately 20-30% of GMV, and has reached US$ 18 billion in GMV for 4Q24, reflecting a 109% YoY increase [3][4]. - Profitability is impacted by a shift in business mix towards lower-margin products, leading to a gross profit margin decline to 56.8%. However, S&M expenses have been managed effectively, maintaining an adjusted net profit margin of 27% [3][4]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for PDD are projected to grow from Rmb393.8 billion in 2024 to Rmb686.2 billion by 2028, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb122.3 billion in 2024 to Rmb242.2 billion in 2028 [4][11]. - The report highlights a significant increase in EPS, projected to reach Rmb82.57 in 2024 and Rmb163.95 by 2028 [4][11]. - The company's market capitalization is noted at US$175 billion, with a P/E ratio of 9x for 2025E, indicating it is relatively under-owned [5][8]. Market Outlook - Management's tone has become less bearish compared to previous quarters, suggesting a more optimistic outlook despite ongoing competition and investment challenges [4][8]. - The report anticipates that it may take 1-2 more quarters for investor confidence to stabilize, particularly in light of uncertainties affecting Temu's growth in the US market [8].