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蔚来：四季度毛利率环比改善，期待今年新品上市-20250325
NIONIO(NIO) 浦银国际证券·2025-03-25 10:25

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO, with a target price adjusted to 5.3forNIO.USandHKD41.1forNIO−SW,representingpotentialupsideof175.3 for NIO.US and HKD 41.1 for NIO-SW, representing potential upside of 17% and 15% respectively [2][4]. Core Insights - NIO is expected to launch nine new models this year, including the ET9 and L90, which will drive sales growth. The company is also focusing on improving dealership efficiency, with noticeable cost improvements anticipated starting in Q2 [9]. - The fourth quarter results were generally in line with expectations, with revenue of RMB 19.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a gross margin of 11.7% [12]. - The valuation of NIO is currently low, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.7x, indicating potential for upward movement as fundamentals improve [9]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for NIO from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 55.6 billion - 2024: RMB 65.7 billion - 2025: RMB 80.3 billion - 2026: RMB 106.4 billion - 2027: RMB 141.0 billion - The revenue growth rates are projected at 13% for 2023, 18% for 2024, 22% for 2025, 33% for 2026, and 32% for 2027 [3][10]. - Gross margin is expected to improve from 5.5% in 2023 to 14.2% in 2027, while net losses are projected to decrease from RMB 21.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 9.0 billion in 2027 [3][10]. Market Expectations - The current market price for NIO is 4.50, with a 52-week price range of 3.61to3.61 to 7.71. The total market capitalization is approximately 9.4billion[4].−ForNIO−SW,thecurrentpriceisHKD35.90,witha52−weekrangeofHKD28.6toHKD60.7,andatotalmarketcapitalizationofaroundHKD74.9billion[5].ValuationMethodology−Thereportemploysasum−of−the−partsvaluationmethod,assigningaprice−to−salesratioof1.0xforautomotivesalesand1.1xforothersales,leadingtoatargetpriceof9.4 billion [4]. - For NIO-SW, the current price is HKD 35.90, with a 52-week range of HKD 28.6 to HKD 60.7, and a total market capitalization of around HKD 74.9 billion [5]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts valuation method, assigning a price-to-sales ratio of 1.0x for automotive sales and 1.1x for other sales, leading to a target price of 5.3 for NIO and HKD 41.1 for NIO-SW [18].