Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - Supply is expected to be further tightened. Although Myanmar has issued a notice for mining - related licenses, actual production resumption takes time. With the suspension of the Congo - Kinshasa Bisie mine, tin ore supply is tight. - Demand recovery is slow, with downstream orders being weak. - Before the supply - side repair, tin prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, ranging from 270,000 to 285,000 yuan. Follow the production dynamics of tin mines in Congo - Kinshasa and Myanmar. [1] Nickel - Macro environment is temporarily stable. In the industry, refined nickel spot trading is average, and raw material nickel ore prices are firm. - Nickel iron prices are strong but with limited transactions, and Indonesian nickel iron return volume is still high. - Sulfuric acid nickel enterprises are in losses, and inventory pressure exists. - Nickel prices are expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, with the main range from 128,000 to 135,000 yuan. Pay attention to macro changes and ore - end trends. [2] Stainless Steel - Macro environment has expectations of domestic policy stimulus. Raw material prices are rising, providing cost support. - Supply growth expectations are moderated due to steel mill maintenance and new - capacity delays. - Demand is slowly recovering, but the overall purchasing atmosphere is weak, and social inventory is high. - Prices are expected to have a short - term range shock, with the main range from 13,000 to 13,600 yuan. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The futures market has intensified long - short competition. The mine end is loosening, and cost support is weakening. - Supply is increasing, while demand lacks further drivers. Inventory is high, and the pressure may increase. - The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main range from 70,000 to 76,000 yuan. [6] Zinc - Supply is loose, with increasing zinc ore imports and rising processing fees. Demand is in the traditional peak season but still in the recovery stage. - Inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage. - Zinc prices are expected to have a short - term shock adjustment. Pay attention to macro expectations at home and abroad. [9] Alumina - Supply is expected to increase, and the market will be in a slightly surplus situation. - The market is expected to continue the weak trend and enter a shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the 2,900 - 3,100 yuan support level. [11] Aluminum - Supply is stable, and demand is robust. Inventory is in the accumulation stage. - Aluminum prices are expected to have a short - term shock adjustment. Pay attention to the 20,500 yuan support level. [11] Copper - Macro factors such as tariff expectations and Fed policies affect copper prices. - Supply of copper ore and scrap copper is tight, while high prices suppress downstream demand. - Copper prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with the main range from 80,500 to 83,500 yuan. Pay attention to downstream demand changes and tariff policies. [12] Summary by Directory Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices decreased by 1.19%. LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 5.08%. - Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss: Import loss increased by 4.84%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.99. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. - Fundamental Data: In February, tin ore imports, refined tin production, and imports decreased, while exports increased. SMM refined tin average operating rate decreased, and SMM solder enterprise operating rate increased. - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and SHEF warehouse receipts increased, while LME inventory remained unchanged. [1] Nickel - Prices and Basis: Spot prices of various nickel products decreased slightly. Futures import loss increased by 5.24%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.02. - Electrowinning Nickel Cost: Costs of different production methods changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. - New Energy Material Prices: Battery - grade nickel sulfate price increased by 0.25%, and battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 0.27%. - Monthly Spread: Spreads between different contracts changed. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production decreased, imports increased, and inventories in different regions changed. [2] Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: Spot prices of stainless steel increased slightly, and the basis increased by 48.21%. - Raw Material Prices: Prices of some raw materials remained unchanged, while others increased slightly. - Monthly Spread: Spreads between different contracts changed. - Fundamental Data: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased, while Indonesian production decreased. Imports, exports, and net exports changed significantly. Inventories in different regions changed slightly. [4] Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: Spot prices of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 9.52%. - Monthly Spread: Spreads between different contracts changed. - Fundamental Data: In February, lithium carbonate production increased, demand decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In March, capacity and operating rate increased. Total inventory increased, downstream inventory decreased, and smelter inventory increased. [6] Zinc - Prices and Spreads: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.29%. Import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. - Monthly Spread: Spreads between different contracts decreased. - Fundamental Data: In February, refined zinc production and imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. Operating rates of related industries increased slightly. Inventories in different regions decreased. [9] Alumina and Aluminum - Prices and Spreads: Aluminum prices remained stable, and alumina prices decreased slightly. Import loss of aluminum decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased. - Monthly Spread: Spreads between different contracts changed. - Fundamental Data: In February, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased. Import and export volumes of electrolytic aluminum changed. Operating rates of related industries changed slightly. Inventories in different regions changed. [11] Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.67%. Import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. - Monthly Spread: Spreads between different contracts changed. - Fundamental Data: In February, electrolytic copper production and imports increased. Import copper concentrate index decreased, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory increased. Operating rates of copper rod production decreased. Inventories in different regions changed. [12]
《有色》日报-2025-03-26
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-03-26 02:45