Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The market trading funds are ebbing, and investors should wait for the verification of profit improvement. For different varieties, specific operation suggestions are given according to their respective market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - Stock Index: Market trading funds are retreating, and with the approaching earnings period, wait for profit verification and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Treasury Bonds: In the short - term unilateral strategy, suggest range operation. For the basis strategy, focus on widening the basis and positive arbitrage strategies of treasury bond futures contracts. For hedging, pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at low basis levels. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond interest rates are facing downward resistance at 1.8% and 2.0% respectively, and the 10 - year bond interest rate is expected to fluctuate mainly in the 1.75% - 1.9% range [2]. - Precious Metals: Gold prices will continue the upward trend if they stabilize above $3000 (700 yuan), otherwise, buy on dips or use out - of - the - money call options instead of unilateral long positions. Silver prices are seeking to break through the resistance at $34 (8400 yuan) [2]. - Shipping Index (EC): Short - term shock is bearish [2]. Black - Steel: The blast furnace continues the resumption trend, and the five major steel products are seasonally destocking. Hold short positions and sell out - of - the - money call options for protection [2]. - Iron Ore: The resumption of hot metal production accelerates, and the shipment increases month - on - month. Try short on rebounds, with the upper pressure reference at 790 [2]. - Coke: After the eleventh round of price cuts, it is temporarily stable, the supply - demand margin improves, and the futures price rebounds in advance. Adopt a callback - buying operation [2]. - Coking Coal: The market is in a weak trend, coal mine开工 increases slightly, inventory destocking slows down, and it still needs to wait for the bottom. Adopt a callback - buying operation [2]. - Silicon Iron: The output declines slightly, and the factory inventory pressure is still large. Mainly short - allocate, with the range reference of 5900 - 6100 [2]. - Manganese Silicon: The supply - demand contradiction accumulates, and the cost support weakens. Mainly short - allocate, with the bottom support reference of 5900 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper: The short - term supply shortage is difficult to reverse, and the COMEX - LME spread widens again. The main reference range is 80500 - 83500 [2]. - Nickel: The disk fluctuates mainly, and the fundamentals change little. The main reference range is 128000 - 135000 [2]. - Stainless Steel: The cost support is clear, and the inventory pressure gradually appears. It fluctuates mainly in the short term. The main reference range is 13000 - 13600 [2]. - Tin: The supply disturbance continues, and the tin price fluctuates at a high level. The operating range is 270,000 - 280,000 [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: The Russia - Ukraine issue eases, and the short - term disk is mainly in high - level consolidation. Short - term unilateral suggests waiting and seeing, with the WTI fluctuation range at [65, 73], Brent at [68, 75], and SC at [490, 550] [2]. - Urea: The downstream trading sentiment is positive, and the short - term disk is mainly in a strong shock. Short - term suggests waiting and seeing, with the 2505 monthly line fluctuation around [1750, 1890] [2]. - PX: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and the oil price is strong. PX's short - term trend is strong. Cautiously go long on PX05; wait and see for the PX5 - 9 spread; suggest widening the PX - SC spread [2]. - PTA: The supply - demand expectation is good, and the driving force has strengthened. The absolute price still focuses on the oil price trend. Cautiously go long on TA05; the TA5 - 9 spread is biased towards positive arbitrage; mainly widen the TA - SC spread [2]. - Short - fiber: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw material fluctuation. PF05 is the same as PTA unilaterally; pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing fee below 1000 for the PF05 disk processing fee, but the short - term driving force is weak [2]. - Bottle Chip: The short - term destocking speed is expected to slow down, and the processing fee still has support. The absolute price follows the cost fluctuation. The 5 - month disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the processing fee at the lower edge of the range [2]. - Ethanol: The short - term visible inventory is difficult to continuously destock, and the MEG rise is limited. Short - term EG05 pays attention to the pressure around 4500 [2]. - Styrene: The regional arbitrage window of pure benzene opens to suppress the price. Under the condition that the EB's own supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, it is mainly affected by the raw material. It may still be weak in the short term, with the first - line support at 7500 [2]. - Caustic Soda: The inventory at each link is not optimistic, and the spot performance is weak, so the disk is difficult to effectively rebound. The idea is still to short on rallies [2]. - PVC: The supply - demand driving force is limited, and the disk trend is relatively tangled. Participate in shorting on rallies [2]. - Synthetic Rubber: The short - term cost - end boost is limited, and BR fluctuates. BR2505 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13300 - 14000 in the short term [2]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The South American supply suppresses the US soybean disk. Pay attention to the planting intention report at the end of the month. Keep the view that soybean meal fluctuates in the range of 2800 - 3000 [2]. - Live Pigs: The disk returns to the spot price. Pay attention to the weight risk. Pay attention to the pressure around 13500 [2]. - Corn: The supply volume continues to be high, and the disk center of gravity moves down. It fluctuates in the range of 2260 - 2320 [2]. - Palm Oil: The fundamental data is bearish, and the palm oil prices decline across the board. P05 may test the support at 8800 in the short term [2]. - Sugar: It follows the raw sugar fluctuation. It fluctuates in the range of 5900 - 6100 [2]. - Cotton: The supply is sufficient, and the short - term upward driving force is not strong. It fluctuates in the range of 13000 - 14000 [2]. - Eggs: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. Reduce short positions and hold near - far month arbitrage [2]. - Apples: Fruit farmers are reluctant to sell, and the trading speed is average. It may run above 7200 in the short term [2]. - Red Dates: The market supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the disk rebound is limited. It runs around 9000 in the short term [2]. - Peanuts: The market price fluctuates steadily. The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - Soda Ash: The sentiment drives the disk to rebound, but the supply - demand surplus pressure still exists. Short - term wait and see [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The production and sales maintain a strong trend, and the disk continues to rise. Hold long positions [2]. - Rubber: The NR warehouse receipt is at a low level, which boosts the rubber sector. Continue to hold long positions [2]. - Log: The supply pressure is combined with weak demand, and the spot price in Jiangsu area is lowered. It fluctuates in the range of 830 - 870 [2]. - Industrial Silicon: There is an expectation of production reduction, and the futures price continues to rise. The main futures contract price mainly fluctuates in the range of about 9500 - 11500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon: The component price continues to rise, and the futures price fluctuates upward. Long positions can continue to be held [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The disk rebounds slightly, but the fundamental pressure still exists. The main reference range is 70,000 - 76,000 [2].
广发期货日评-2025-03-26
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-03-26 07:39