大越期货聚烯烃早报-2025-03-27

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamental situation of LLDPE is bearish, but it is expected to trade sideways today due to factors such as the peak season for plastic film and concentrated new capacity launches [4]. - The fundamental situation of PP is neutral, and it is also expected to trade sideways today with the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. New capacity launches are still concentrated in March, the industrial chain inventory is neutral, and the demand for plastic film is in the peak season while other demand is stable. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7900 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2505 contract is 223, with a premium ratio of 2.9%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.1 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways today [4]. - Likely Factors: Strong basis and macro - policies to promote consumption [5]. - Negative Factors: Concentrated new capacity launches, weak crude oil prices, and the impact of additional tariffs [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. One set of equipment such as Zhejiang Petrochemical has restarted this week, and three sets of equipment such as Maoming Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly. The industrial chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is good, with the demand for plastic weaving and other products recovering recently. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7380 (+0), with a neutral fundamental situation [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2505 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 70.1 million tons (+0.5), which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [6]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways today [6]. - Likely Factors: Macro - policies to promote consumption and recent demand recovery [7]. - Negative Factors: Weak crude oil prices and the impact of additional tariffs [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].