Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Supply is tight due to reduced domestic tin ore imports, delays in Myanmar's production resumption, and the suspension of Congo's Bisie mine. Demand recovery in traditional sectors is slow. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the range of 270,000 - 285,000 yuan, with attention on production dynamics in Congo and Myanmar [1]. Nickel - The nickel market is influenced by a strong non - ferrous sector. Refined nickel production decreased, while imports increased significantly. The market is supported by strong raw materials but constrained by overall industry overcapacity. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 128,000 - 135,000 yuan, with focus on macro changes and ore trends [3]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are supported by rising raw material costs. However, demand recovery is slower than expected, and high inventory may lead to price pressure. Prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 13,000 - 13,600 yuan [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market has a clear supply - demand contradiction. With loosening raw materials and reduced costs, the market sentiment is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, with prices operating in the range of 72,000 - 76,000 yuan [6][7]. Zinc - The zinc market has a balanced supply - demand situation. Supply is increasing with rising ore imports and smelter restarts, while demand is in the recovery phase. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention on macro expectations [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is abundant, and demand is stable. It is expected to remain in a slightly oversupplied state, with prices in the range of 2,900 - 3,100 yuan. Aluminum supply is stable, and demand is recovering. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on the 20,500 yuan support level [10]. Copper - Copper prices are supported by tight supply of copper ore and scrap copper, as well as tariff expectations. However, high prices suppress downstream demand. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with a reference range of 79,500 - 82,000 yuan [11]. Summary by Directory Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose by 1.64%. The LME 0 - 3 spread dropped by 586.67% [1]. - Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss: The import loss increased by 3.52%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00 [1]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts showed significant changes, such as the 2504 - 2505 spread dropping by 28.95% [1]. - Fundamental Data: February saw decreases in tin ore imports, refined tin production, and imports, while exports increased. The average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased, and the SMM solder operating rate increased [1]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased [1]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and other nickel prices increased slightly. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 288.86% [3]. - Electrowinning Nickel Costs: Costs for different production methods showed various changes, with the cost of integrated MHP production increasing by 2.51% [3]. - New Energy Material Prices: Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices decreased by 0.27%, and cobalt sulfate prices increased by 0.20% [3]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 40 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production decreased, imports increased, and SHFE and social inventories increased [3]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Basis: 304/2B stainless steel prices in Wuxi decreased by 0.37%, while those in Foshan increased by 0.37%. The basis decreased by 25.30% [4]. - Raw Material Prices: Most raw material prices remained stable, with the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increasing by 0.10% [4]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed slightly [4]. - Fundamental Data: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production increased, imports and exports changed significantly, and social inventories decreased slightly [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: Most lithium carbonate prices remained stable, and the basis decreased by 33.33% [6]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2504 - 2505 spread decreasing by 60 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamental Data: February saw an increase in lithium carbonate production and inventory, while demand decreased [6]. Zinc - Prices and Spreads: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices increased slightly. The import loss increased by 52.5 yuan/ton [8]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2504 - 2505 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: February refined zinc production and imports decreased, while exports increased significantly. Galvanizing and other operating rates increased slightly, and social and LME inventories decreased [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Prices and Spreads: SMM A00 aluminum prices increased slightly. Alumina prices in some regions decreased slightly [10]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2504 - 2505 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamental Data: February saw decreases in alumina and electrolytic aluminum production. Aluminum product operating rates increased, and social and LME inventories decreased [10]. Copper - Prices and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices increased by 1.34%. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 37.50 dollars/ton [11]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between different contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 30 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: February electrolytic copper production and imports increased. Copper rod operating rates decreased, and social and SHFE inventories changed [11].
广发期货《有色》日报-2025-03-27
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-03-27 02:14