低碳燃料：通往净零排放的最后一公里：合成燃料对于航空和航运脱碳的作用

Group 1: Decarbonization Goals - Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 requires a fundamental shift from fossil fuel-based systems to highly renewable and electrified energy systems[6] - Aviation and shipping industries are responsible for approximately 1 billion tons of CO2 emissions annually, accounting for about 6% of global emissions[15] - By 2050, aviation CO2 emissions are expected to decrease by approximately 75%, while shipping emissions could reach near-zero levels, with a reduction of 95%[7] Group 2: Role of Low-Carbon Fuels - Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and synthetic fuels are projected to be the primary low-carbon fuel sources for aviation and shipping by 2050, with synthetic fuels expected to account for about 40% of aviation fuel supply[6][28] - To achieve the required levels of synthetic fuel supply by 2050, approximately 150 million tons of sustainable hydrogen and 700 million tons of climate-neutral CO2 will be needed[7] - The production of clean hydrogen, fuel synthesis, and direct air capture will require up to 10,000 TWh of clean electricity by 2050, equivalent to one-third of global electricity generation in 2023[8] Group 3: Economic and Technical Challenges - The cost of synthetic fuels is currently significantly higher than fossil fuels, with prices potentially remaining two to ten times higher without public support[9] - An estimated annual investment of about $130 billion will be necessary by 2050 to ensure sufficient supply of synthetic fuels, which is comparable to the total fuel expenditure of the aviation and shipping sectors[9] - The transition to low-carbon fuels involves overcoming major technical challenges, including the need for new fuel supply infrastructure and engine solutions for shipping[10] Group 4: Future Outlook and Collaboration - Policymakers play a crucial role in creating the initial conditions for the transition, including establishing regulatory frameworks and providing ongoing support[13] - International organizations can facilitate a coordinated global energy transition by implementing universal rules and certification systems for low-carbon fuels[13] - Collaboration among all stakeholders in the value chain is essential for achieving the decarbonization goals in aviation and shipping[11]