摩根大通：亚洲科技-关于科技限制与关税问题电话会议的关键要点

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The upcoming tariff announcement is expected to be narrower, simpler, and smaller, focusing on one or two major contributors to the U.S. trade deficit rather than a broad range of countries, with Japan, Taiwan, and Korea likely to be included [3] - Additional tariffs on China are anticipated, moving towards a 60% target, which could further strain US-China trade relations [3] - An export control review is underway, with potential changes that may restrict Chinese AI firms' access to overseas computing resources, impacting the global AI industry [3] - DeepSeek's success highlights the need for more comprehensive export controls, as companies like Huawei have managed to circumvent existing restrictions [4] - Nvidia's H20 chip may face restrictions, impacting its revenue and ability to export to China, with a shift in focus towards inference rather than just advanced AI training [5] - The US is taking a multilateral approach on export controls, but challenges remain due to statutory limitations in other countries [5] - The current CHIPS Act should remain in place, but challenges may arise regarding the renewal of ITC in 2026, potentially limiting semiconductor manufacturing in the US [5] - TSMC's new $100 billion investment is positive for US manufacturing, but uncertainties remain regarding tariffs and the extension of the CHIPS program ITC [5] Summary by Sections Tariff Announcements - The upcoming tariff announcement is expected to be more targeted and sector-specific, with Japan, Taiwan, and Korea likely to be included [3] China Tariffs - Additional tariffs on China are anticipated, aiming for a 60% target, which may lead to retaliatory actions from China [3] Export Control Rules - A review of export controls is underway, with potential changes that could impact the global AI industry and restrict access for Chinese firms [3] Technology Companies - DeepSeek's success and Huawei's ability to circumvent restrictions indicate a need for more comprehensive controls [4] Nvidia and Chip Restrictions - Nvidia's H20 chip may face restrictions, impacting its revenue and export capabilities [5] Multilateral Export Controls - The US is pursuing a multilateral approach to export controls, facing challenges from other countries' statutory limitations [5] CHIPS Act and Semiconductor Manufacturing - The CHIPS Act is expected to remain in place, but funding challenges could limit semiconductor manufacturing in the US [5] TSMC Investment - TSMC's $100 billion investment is seen as positive for US manufacturing, but uncertainties regarding tariffs and program extensions remain [5]