策略周报：关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如何配置？-2025-03-30

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the bond market, driven by the central bank's unexpected MLF operations, but notes that a long-term trend requires further monetary policy easing or changes in economic fundamentals [1][12]. - In the stock market, the report suggests focusing on undervalued sectors such as steel, oil and petrochemicals, and coal, while waiting for further policy initiatives or clarity on U.S. tariff policies before making aggressive investments [2][12]. - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with a notable shift of funds from high-valuation sectors to defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and food and beverage [10][20]. Group 2 - The report mentions that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in over two years, influenced by tariff impacts, while long-term inflation expectations have reached a 32-year high [9][10]. - It notes that the core PCE price index in the U.S. increased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since December 2024, which has raised concerns about stagflation [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming U.S. tariff policy announcement on April 2, as better-than-expected outcomes could lead to a short-term recovery in U.S. stocks [13].