中金-宏观探市：特朗普“大重置”：债务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report introduces a framework to understand Trump's ultimate goals and policy paths, termed "Great Reset," focusing on addressing the significant wealth gap and high government debt pressure since World War II [2] - It is anticipated that Trump will attempt to reset the capital structure, aiming for a shift from financial capital to industrial capital, promoting re-industrialization and reducing wealth disparity [2][3] - The report suggests that without significant productivity improvements, the policy paths may lead to global capital rebalancing, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [3] Summary by Sections Great Reset: Why, What, and How - The report discusses the need for a reset due to the extreme wealth disparity and the shift in fiscal philosophy regarding debt sustainability in the U.S. [13] Wealth Disparity and Capital Structure Reset - Since the Reagan administration, the U.S. has seen a shift from industrial to financial capital, leading to a decline in labor income share and an increase in wealth inequality [14][16] - The report highlights that the wealthiest 1% of American households hold a significant portion of their assets in the stock market, while the bottom 50% have minimal stock market exposure [19][20] Debt Pressure and Debt Burden Reset - The report notes that U.S. government debt held by the public is approaching 100% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 117% in the next decade [28] - It emphasizes that the government will likely need to address debt through inflation and potential administrative measures to lower interest rates [47] Asset Implications of the Great Reset - The report indicates that the reset will lead to a rebalancing of global capital between the U.S. and non-U.S. assets, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [48] - It suggests that the depreciation of the dollar may manifest more significantly against a basket of physical assets, including commodities and strategic resources [48] - The report anticipates a long-term decline in U.S. stock valuations, with a shift favoring value stocks over growth stocks, particularly in sectors representing industrial capital [52]