中金-海外宏观简评：特朗普“对等关税”前瞻

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the implications of Trump's proposed "reciprocal tariffs" which are expected to significantly increase the effective tariff rate in the U.S. from 2.4% to a range of 16.3% under the baseline scenario, with potential increases up to 20.2% in extreme cases [1][11] - The focus of the tariffs is likely to be on the top 15 economies contributing to the U.S. trade deficit, which accounted for 86% of U.S. goods imports in 2024 [2][3] - The report highlights that the tariffs aim to level the playing field between the U.S. and its trading partners, particularly targeting countries with higher average tariffs and VAT rates [4][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: Scope of Tariffs - The reciprocal tariff policy emphasizes fairness, where the U.S. will match the tariffs imposed by other countries on U.S. goods [2] - The focus will likely be on countries contributing to the U.S. trade deficit, with potential flexibility for certain nations like Mexico and Canada [3] Section 2: Tariff Rates - The report outlines three scenarios for the effective tariff rates: - Baseline scenario: effective tariff rate increases to 16.3% - Moderate scenario: increases to 13.3% - Extreme scenario: increases to 20.2% [11] - Countries like India, the EU, and Mexico are expected to be significantly impacted due to their higher existing tariff and VAT rates [4] Section 3: Exemptions - Mexico and Canada may receive exemptions due to their close trade ties with the U.S. and existing trade agreements [5][7] - The report suggests that these exemptions could be used as leverage to renegotiate trade agreements like the USMCA [5] Section 4: Economic Impact - The report estimates that under the baseline scenario, tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 1.1 percentage points and reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points [8][11] - The potential increase in government revenue from tariffs is projected to be $453 billion under the baseline scenario [8]