全球经济预测数据库_瑞银预测 - 本周变化

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Following a 100 basis point hike by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), the report anticipates a subsequent 50 basis point hike in May, another 50 basis points in June, and a halt at 15.25% [3]. - The inflation forecast for South Africa has been adjusted to 3.4% for 2025, down from 3.5% [3]. Summary by Sections Current Forecasts vs Last Week - The report includes a comparison of current forecasts against those from the previous week, highlighting changes in economic indicators [2][14]. Forecast Highlights - The report provides detailed forecasts for various economic indicators, including Real GDP growth, Consumer Prices, and Fiscal balances for multiple countries [11][12]. - For the US, Real GDP is forecasted at 2.8% for 2024, 2.0% for 2025, and 1.8% for 2026, with inflation rates of 3.0%, 2.7%, and 2.5% respectively [12]. - Japan's Real GDP is projected at 0.1% for 2024, 1.2% for 2025, and 0.7% for 2026, with inflation rates of 2.7%, 3.1%, and 1.8% [12]. - The Eurozone is expected to have a Real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2024, 0.9% in 2025, and 1.1% in 2026, with inflation rates of 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.0% [12]. Global Assumptions - The report outlines global assumptions for currency exchange rates and bond yields, including an expected EUR/USD rate of 1.12 by the end of 2025 and a 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.25% [13].