Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting the short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.49% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.08%. The performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good, with most yields declining [3]. - The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on March 28, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method, and its policy attribute has completely faded. The central bank has mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. Due to the central bank's cautious policy attitude and the uncertainty of subsequent fiscal policies, the volatility of the bond market may increase [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Periodic Bond Market Review - Fundamentals: Spot bond and futures generally weakened. The end - of - quarter funds were not tight, supporting short - term bonds to be warm. Most treasury bond futures closed down, and the performance of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was good [3]. - Funding situation: On March 28, the central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.50%. The net withdrawal on the day was 14.5 billion yuan [3]. - Basis: The basis of TS, TF, and T main contracts showed that the spot bonds were at a discount to the futures, which was bearish, while the basis of the TL main contract showed that the spot bonds were at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3]. - Inventory: The balances of deliverable bonds for TS, TF, and T main contracts were 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Market trend: The main contracts of TS, TF, and T were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main positions: The net positions of TS and TF main contracts were long, with an increase in long positions, while the net position of the T main contract was long, with a decrease in long positions [5]. - Expectation: The LPR has remained unchanged for 5 consecutive months. The central bank has adjusted the MLF operation method and mentioned the possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The bond market volatility may increase due to policy and fiscal uncertainties [5]. 2. Market Review - Contract details: For the T2506 contract, the current price was 107.875, down 0.08%, with a trading volume of 124,200 and an open interest of 296,151; for the TF2506 contract, the current price was 105.650, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 110,400 and an open interest of 257,868; for the TS2506 contract, the current price was 102.446, unchanged, with a trading volume of 56,900 and an open interest of 150,994; for the TL2506 contract, the current price was 116.00, down 0.49%, with a trading volume of 166,100 and an open interest of 164,282 [8]. 3. Spot Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and the maturity yields of inter - bank treasury bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [9][13] 4. Basis Analysis - There are basis data for T2506, TF2506, and TS2506 CTD bonds over a period from September 2024 to February 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not presented in the text [15][16][17]
大越期货国债期货早报-2025-03-31
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-03-31 04:05