Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend weakly with oscillations today due to factors such as concentrated new - capacity launches, although the base - difference is strong, the macro - policy promotes consumption, and the film season is ongoing [4]. - PP is expected to show an oscillating trend today, with factors like the recovery of downstream demand and potential supply increase [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In February, official PMI was 50.2% (up 1.1%), and Caixin PMI was 50.8% (up 0.7%), both in the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year - on - year. The US sanctions on Venezuela reduced crude oil supply and led to price rebounds. New capacity launches are concentrated, the industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and the film season is in progress. The current LLDPE delivery - product spot price is 7870 (unchanged), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - Base - difference: The LLDPE 2505 contract base - difference is 169, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish sign [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (down 3.7), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Main Positions: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - Expected Trend: The LLDPE main - contract market is expected to trend weakly with oscillations [4]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. This week, one unit of Yulong Petrochemical restarted, and one unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is planned for maintenance, with expected supply increase. The industrial - chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has recovered. The current PP delivery - product spot price is 7380 (unchanged), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - Base - difference: The PP 2505 contract base - difference is 41, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, indicating a bullish sign [6]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 64.2 tons (down 5.9), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [6]. - Main Positions: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - Expected Trend: The PP main - contract market is expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-2025-03-31
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-03-31 04:05