锌产业周报-2025-03-31

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Positive Factors: Tariff games have pushed up the price difference of US copper, and the glimmer of hope in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has improved market sentiment. Fundamentally, both supply and demand have increased, supporting prices. Zinc ingot inventories have started to decline, the import window is deeply closed, and the spot premium has remained stable. Short-term tight circulation supports zinc prices [2]. - Negative Factors: Domestic real estate sales data is weak. The galvanizing sector is affected by environmental protection restrictions and transportation limitations, and terminal demand has not met expectations. The supply of ore is abundant, processing fees are continuously rising, and smelters' willingness to increase production is strengthening. The expectation of increased production of refined zinc intensifies the pressure of supply-demand surplus [2]. - Trading Advice: In the short term, Shanghai zinc will fluctuate within a range. The sentiment of both long and short positions to exit the market is obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the rhythm of the range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized Sheet Coil: The report presents the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality of galvanized sheet coils [4]. - Net Exports and Imports: It shows the seasonal data of net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as the net imports of die - cast zinc alloys [5][8][9]. - Real Estate and Infrastructure: Data on real estate development investment, project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) are provided [10][12][14]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Price and Volume: The report includes the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the LME term structure [15][17][18]. - Premium and Basis: It shows the LME (spot/three - month) premium, seasonal data of LME (spot/three - month) premium, three - place basis trends of zinc ingots, and seasonal data of Tianjin zinc ingot basis [18][20][22]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Supply Data: Information on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrate, SMM zinc ingot monthly production, China's zinc ingot monthly production + import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and LME and SHFE zinc inventories is provided [26][28][30]. - Profit and Processing Fees: The report presents the production profit of refined zinc enterprises and the processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates [27][28].