镍、不锈钢产业链周报-2025-03-31

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated March 31, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Likely Factors: Good production and sales data of new energy vehicles, firm prices of nickel ore and ferronickel, and cost support; continuously low global inventory supports nickel prices [3] - Negative Factors: A significant year-on-year increase in domestic production and no new growth points in demand; global nickel inventory has reached a record high, and the supply surplus pattern is significant [3] - Trading Consultation Viewpoint: Low inventory support coexists with supply surplus. It is recommended to maintain range-bound operations considering the intertwined long and short factors [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest values of Shanghai Nickel main contract, consecutive contracts 1 - 3, and LME Nickel 3M are 131,600 yuan/ton, 131,600 yuan/ton, 131,780 yuan/ton, 132,040 yuan/ton, and 16,235 US dollars/ton respectively. The weekly price increases are 2,380 yuan/ton, 1,650 yuan/ton, 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,760 yuan/ton, and 25 US dollars/ton, with weekly price increase rates of 1.84%, 1.27%, 1.28%, 1.28%, and 1.35% respectively. The trading volume increased by 30.95% to 249,977 lots, the open interest decreased by 3.3% to 106,286 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 1.82% to 26,799 tons [3] - Stainless Steel Futures: The latest values of stainless steel main contract and consecutive contracts 1 - 3 are 13,535 yuan/ton, 13,535 yuan/ton, 13,695 yuan/ton, and 13,785 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly price increases are 180 yuan/ton, 145 yuan/ton, 165 yuan/ton, and 155 yuan/ton, with weekly price increase rates of 1%, 1.08%, 1.22%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume increased by 25.68% to 206,853 lots, the open interest decreased by 6.66% to 129,740 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased by 0.61% to 199,246 tons [5] - Spot Prices: The latest values of Jinchuan Nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel are 132,950 yuan/ton, 131,200 yuan/ton, 132,100 yuan/ton, 130,850 yuan/ton, and 131,150 yuan/ton respectively. The daily price increases are 1,150 yuan/ton, 1,250 yuan/ton, 1,250 yuan/ton, 1,350 yuan/ton, and 1,250 yuan/ton, with daily price increase rates of 0.87%, 0.96%, 0.96%, 1.04%, and 0.96% respectively [5] - Inventory Data: The latest values of domestic social inventory, LME nickel inventory, stainless steel social inventory, and ferronickel inventory are 47,423 tons, 201,300 tons, 984.3 tons, and 23,015 tons respectively. The changes compared to the previous period are an increase of 315 tons, an increase of 222 tons, a decrease of 9.7 tons, and a decrease of 5,717 tons respectively [5] 2. Price Trends - Nickel Futures and Spot Prices: The report presents the historical price trends of Shanghai Nickel futures main contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic - trading price, and nickel spot average price [7][11] - Stainless Steel Futures Price: The historical price trend of stainless steel futures main contract is shown [9] 3. Supply and Inventory - Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory: It includes the seasonal data of China's refined nickel monthly production, China's primary nickel monthly total supply (including imports), domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), and LME nickel inventory [13][14] - Upstream Nickel Ore: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) and the seasonal data of China's port nickel ore inventory by port are presented [16] - Ferronickel: The average ex - factory prices of 8 - 12% ferronickel in China and Ni≥14% Indonesian ferronickel (arrival - duty - paid), as well as the seasonal data of China's and Indonesia's ferronickel monthly production are shown [18][19][20] - Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel: The average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel, its premium over primary nickel (plates), the seasonal profit rates of producing sulfuric acid nickel from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased sulfuric acid nickel, China's monthly production of sulfuric acid nickel, and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are presented [22][25][26] - Stainless Steel: The seasonal profit rate of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production, and inventory are shown [27][28][30]