《能源化工》日报-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Styrene: Current supply and demand are both high, with limited overall supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to follow pure benzene and move weakly, with the lower support level temporarily at 7500 [4]. - Crude Oil: In the short - term, prices have slightly declined after a high. In the medium - to - long - term, the market will maintain a tight balance in the second quarter. It is recommended to track OPEC over - production compensation, authoritative reports, US refined oil consumption, and tariff policies [9]. - Polyester Industry Chain: Different products in the polyester industry chain have different trends in the second quarter. PX and PTA are expected to be relatively strong, MEG has limited destocking, short - fiber has limited supply - demand drive, and bottle - chip has supply - demand growth but pressured processing fees [12]. - Chlor - Alkali Industry: Caustic soda prices are difficult to stabilize, and there is still room for valuation compression. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and the overall trend is bearish [31]. - Urea: The short - term price is supported by the recovery of industrial and agricultural demand, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to industrial demand and new capacity release, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [34]. - Polyolefins: LLDPE's fundamentals have slightly improved in the short - term, and PP is in a volatile state in the short - term. Both face new capacity pressure in the medium - term [39][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs Styrene - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil (May) decreased by 0.4 dollars/barrel (-0.5%), CFR Japan naphtha increased by 3 dollars/ton (0.5%), etc. [1]. - Spot and Futures: EB2505 increased by 90 (1.1%), EB2506 increased by 38 (0.5%), etc. [2]. - Overseas Quotes and Import Profits: Styrene CFR China increased by 7 dollars/ton (0.7%), and the import profit decreased by 11.8 yuan/ton (-6.9%) [3]. - Industry Chain开工率 and Profits: Domestic pure benzene comprehensive开工率 decreased by 2.9% (-3.6%), styrene开工率 increased by 1.5% (2.0%), etc. [4]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Brent increased by 0.08 dollars/barrel (0.11%), WTI remained unchanged, etc. [9]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: NYM ULSD increased by 1.36 cents/gallon (0.60%), ICE Gasoil increased by 4.25 dollars/ton (0.64%), etc. [9]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: Singapore gasoline increased by 4.29 dollars/barrel (52.06%), US diesel increased by 0.57 dollars/barrel (2.23%), etc. [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows: POY150/48 price increased by 50 (0.7%), FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, etc. [12]. - PX - related Prices and Spreads: CFR China PX decreased by 2 dollars/ton (-0.2%), PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.2%), etc. [12]. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: PTA East China spot price decreased by 15 (0.3%), TA futures 2505 decreased by 40 (-0.8%), etc. [12]. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: MEG East China spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.3%), EG期货2505 decreased by 39 (-0.9%), etc. [12]. - Industry Chain开工率 Changes: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 3.2% (-4.2%), China PX开工率 decreased by 5.0% (-6.0%), etc. [12]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - Product Prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 31.3 (-1.1%), East China calcium carbide - based PVC remained unchanged, etc. [31]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: FOB East China port caustic soda decreased by 10 dollars/ton (-2.1%), PVC CFR Southeast Asia increased by 10 dollars/ton (1.5%), etc. [31]. - Supply - side开工率 and Profits: Caustic soda industry开工率 decreased by 1.6 (-1.8%), PVC总开工率 increased by 0.5 (0.7%), etc. [31]. - Demand - side开工率: Alumina industry开工率 decreased by 0.7 (-0.8%), viscose staple fiber industry开工率 increased by 2.4 (2.8%), etc. [31]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China inventory decreased by 0.6 (-2.4%), PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.5 (-3.2%), etc. [31]. Urea - Futures Prices and Spreads: 01 contract increased by 6 (0.32%), 01 contract - 05 contract increased by 22 (13.79%), etc. [34]. - Upstream Raw Materials: Anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged, steam coal pit - mouth (Ejin Horo Banner) remained unchanged, etc. [34]. - Supply - demand Situation: Domestic urea daily output increased by 0.17 (0.88%), factory inventory decreased by 17.02 (-16.40%), etc. [34]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: L2505 decreased by 13 (-0.17%), L2505 - 2509 decreased by 16 (-16.33%), etc. [37][43]. - PE and PP开工率 and Inventory: PE装置开工率 increased by 1.66 (2.06%), PE企业库存 decreased by 3.61 (-6.68%), etc. [38][39].