原木期货日报-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of logs remains, and the overall demand is under pressure, with spot prices continuously decreasing. The current valuation of the log futures is moderately low, and the possibility of a deep decline is limited. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 820 - 860 yuan per cubic meter. Attention should be paid to information related to log futures delivery on April 1st [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on March 28th compared to March 27th, with declines of -0.48%, -0.41%, and -0.94% respectively. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased, and the spreads between 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 contracts changed. Spot prices of most log varieties in ports remained stable, while some in Taicang Port decreased [2] - The import theoretical cost increased slightly from 862.94 yuan on March 27th to 863.52 yuan on March 28th, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also increased slightly [2] Supply - Monthly port throughput increased by 50.98% from 131.1 million cubic meters on December 31st to 197.9 million cubic meters on February 28th. The number of ships in the port increased by 18.37% from 49 to 58 [2] - Weekly log inventory in major ports increased. As of March 21st, the inventory in China was 364 million cubic meters, a 4.30% increase from March 14th. In Shandong and Jiangsu, the inventories also increased [2][3] Demand - Weekly average daily log出库量 decreased. As of March 21st, the average daily log出库量 in China was 6.42 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from March 14th. In Shandong, it increased by 2%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 2% [2][3]