Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Tin - In the supply side, the smelting fees of Yunnan smelters decreased, domestic tin ore imports declined, the Bisie mine in Congo suspended operations, and the earthquake in Myanmar may affect tin mine production. In the demand side, the growth rate of global semiconductor sales slowed down, and the demand in traditional downstream areas recovered slowly. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level before the supply - side is repaired. [1] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals lack positive factors. The supply pressure is clear, and the supply increment in April is expected to slow down marginally. The demand is generally stable, but there is a risk of a decline in energy - storage export orders. The inventory is still high, and the overall situation is bearish. The short - term disk is expected to run weakly, and the operation idea is to short on rallies. [3] Nickel - The raw nickel ore is firm, which supports the disk, but the overall industry surplus restricts the upward space. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. [5] Stainless Steel - The policy environment is good, raw materials support prices, and the expected production reduction of steel mills improves short - term supply. The demand has certain resilience but recovers slowly, and the inventory is high. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range. [7] Alumina - The supply side is loose, the demand increment is limited, and the inventory is in the accumulation stage. It is expected that the alumina fundamentals will maintain a slightly surplus pattern, and the futures price will continue to be under pressure. [9] Aluminum - The supply and demand of aluminum both increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price will fluctuate and consolidate. [9] Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, the smelting profit is repaired, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand of the primary processing industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing, which supports the price. The short - term price will fluctuate. [11] Copper - Macroeconomic factors such as tariff expectations and the Fed's policy affect copper prices. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper is tight, which supports the price, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and inventory changes. [13] Summary by Directory Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin increased by 0.36% to 279,900 yuan/ton, and the Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.36% to 280,400 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 586.67% to - 515 dollars/ton. [1] Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import loss decreased by 1.61% to - 20,484.18 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00. [1] Monthly Spread - The spread between 2504 - 2505 decreased by 34.21% to - 510 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2505 - 2506 increased by 12.50% to - 210 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In February, tin ore imports decreased by 11.15% to 8,745 tons, SMM refined tin production decreased by 10.45% to 14,050 tons, and refined tin exports increased by 11.36% to 2,373 tons. [1] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.20% to 74,150 yuan/ton, and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.21% to 72,200 yuan/ton. [3] Monthly Spread - The spread between 2504 - 2505 increased by 120 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2505 - 2506 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. [3] Fundamental Data - In February, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.50% to 64,050 tons, and the demand decreased by 8.12% to 75,597 tons. [3] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.96% to 132,100 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 288.86% to - 289 dollars/ton. [5] Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowinning nickel increased by 2.51% to 124,444 yuan/ton. [5] New Energy Material Prices - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 28,260 yuan/ton. [5] Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton. [5] Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 5.69% to 28,320 tons, and refined nickel imports increased by 99.27% to 18,897 tons. [5] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.37% to 13,650 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.74% to 13,700 yuan/ton. [7] Raw Material Prices - The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.24% to 1,028 yuan/nickel point. [7] Monthly Spread - The spread between 2505 - 2506 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. [7] Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased by 2.98% to 56.59 million tons. [7] Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.91% to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.32% to 3,080 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In February, alumina production increased by 8.85% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 9.67% to 333.96 million tons. [9] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.91% to 20,620 yuan/ton, and the import profit was 192.8 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 1.67% to 61.00%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.75% to 46.6 million tons. [9] Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 1.25% to 23,790 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased to - 1,254 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Spread - The spread between 2504 - 2505 increased by 15 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton. [11] Fundamental Data - In February, refined zinc production increased by 13.70% to 54.69 million tons, and the galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.9% to 59.75%. [11] Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 1.20% to 80,605 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 33 dollars/ton to - 54.50 dollars/ton. [13] Monthly Spread - The spread between 2504 - 2505 remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton. [13] Fundamental Data - In February, electrolytic copper production increased by 4.38% to 105.82 million tons, and the electrolytic copper rod开工率 decreased by 5.87% to 64.06%. [13]
广发期货《有色》日报-2025-03-31
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-03-31 09:34