融达期货宏观日报0401

Economic Indicators - In March, China's manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4%, respectively, all showing an increase of 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a clear economic recovery trend[2] - Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35% and lowered the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1.5%[2] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of a potential 20% special tariff on all imports by President Trump, the Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, closing below 36,000 points, marking a decline of over 10% from its peak in December[2] - The Hang Seng Index dropped by 1.31%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.00%[4] Commodity Performance - NYMEX crude oil rose by 3.42% to $71.40, while LME copper fell by 1.07% to $9,690.00[4] - Agricultural products mostly increased, with notable gains in cotton and sugar, while black metals saw declines, with coking coal down by 1.5%[3] Bond Market - The yield on 10-year Chinese government bonds was 1.82%, reflecting a 0.29% increase, while the 2-year yield rose by 2.35% to 1.57%[4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.23%, showing a slight decrease of 0.04%[4] Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar index stood at 104.19, with a minor increase of 0.15%[4] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar was 7.27, reflecting a decrease of 0.06%[4]