大越期货豆粕早报-2025-04-01

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern, with the mid - term remaining range - bound. The soybean market will also experience short - term oscillations, influenced by factors such as the Sino - US tariff war, South American soybean harvest weather, and domestic policies [9][12]. - The short - term supply and demand of soybean meal after the Spring Festival are both weak, and the overall situation is affected by the trend of US soybeans. The domestic soybean market is affected by the Sino - US tariff war and the expected domestic soybean purchase and storage policy [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Soybean Meal M2505: Operate within the range of 2800 - 2860 intraday [9]. - Soybean A2505: Operate within the range of 3840 - 3940 intraday [12]. 2. Recent News - After the Sino - US tariff war, US soybeans are oscillating. The weather in South American soybean - producing areas is still variable, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating. The US soybean market is waiting for further guidance on Sino - US tariffs, exports, and harvest weather [15]. - The US bio - policy agreement supports the short - term rebound of the US soybean market. The arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in April. After the Spring Festival, the short - term inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is low, and the short - term spot price of soybean meal is relatively strong [15]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal weakens after the Spring Festival, but the tight supply supports the price. Driven by the trend of US soybeans, soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short and medium term [15]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal is rising from a low level, and the falling spot price suppresses short - term price expectations. The speculation about the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the expected high yield are intertwined, and soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [15]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - Short - term low arrival of imported soybeans in China [16]. - Low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal [16]. - Uncertain weather in South American soybean - producing areas [16]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - High cost of imported US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [17]. - Expected state purchase and storage of soybeans support domestic soybean prices [17]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will increase to a high level in April [16]. - The progress of the Brazilian soybean harvest continues, and the expected high yield persists [16]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China is increasing purchases of Brazilian soybeans [17]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the price [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 199, indicating a premium over futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 74.8 million tons, a 0.16% decrease from last week and a 139.13% increase from the same period last year [10]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4000, with a basis of 93, indicating a premium over futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 247.92 million tons, a 1.54% decrease from last week and a 20.37% decrease from the same period last year [13]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [10]. - Soybeans: The main short positions are increasing, and funds are flowing in [13]. Other Data - Price and Transaction Data: The report provides the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from March 20 to March 31, including transaction prices, volumes, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [18]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, including harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [35][36]. - Sowing and Growth Progress: The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - USDA Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from September 2024 to March 2025 are included, covering harvest area, yield, production, inventory, etc. [45]. - Industry Conditions: The export inspection of US soybeans is decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans is decreasing, while the soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills are decreasing, and the demand for stockpiling is weak in the short term. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains low, and the soybean meal production in February increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuates slightly, and the import profit of soybeans is good. The inventory of pigs and sows decreased slightly in December, and the prices of pigs and piglets fluctuate slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China is decreasing, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs is slightly decreasing. The domestic pig - breeding profit is slightly decreasing [46][48][50][52][54][56][58][60][62].