Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures may face downward pressure after the end of the rebound due to weak exports, increasing production, and concerns about rising inventory. Domestic palm oil prices may experience a new round of downward oscillations, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak pattern. - For soybean oil, the demand in the biodiesel industry is expected to increase significantly. However, with the arrival of a large amount of Brazilian soybeans in April, the inventory is likely to rise, and the spot basis quotation may decline. [1] Sugar Industry - The short - term strength of raw sugar prices is supported by the reduced production estimates in India and Brazil. But the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season will suppress prices in the long term. Raw sugar will fluctuate widely in the range of 17 - 20 cents per pound. - The domestic sugar market lacks effective driving factors and follows the trend of raw sugar. Although there is some domestic production increase, the shortage of imported sugar sources supports prices. However, due to the increasing industrial inventory, the upside space of sugar prices is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. [3] Egg Industry - Egg supply remains stable, and downstream demand may increase. The price is expected to rise slightly and then stabilize next week, followed by a slight decline later. [6] Cotton Industry - The low inventory of downstream finished products in the cotton industry provides strong support for cotton prices. The market is concerned about the potential summer demand but also worried about the weakening of downstream demand after the traditional peak season. Short - term domestic cotton prices will operate within a range. [8] Meal Industry - South American soybean harvests are abundant, and policy uncertainties on tariffs put pressure on US soybeans. In China, the supply of soybeans is tight, but feed demand is weak. With the acceleration of Brazilian shipments and the expected arrival of a large amount of soybeans in April, the basis is under pressure. The short - term supply - demand pattern of both weakness will continue. - For rapeseed meal, the tariff policy on Canada is implemented, and with the increasing substitution effect of soybean meal, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed meal is strong in supply and weak in demand, and its price trend is weak. [10] Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the short term, the corn market is affected by factors such as the weakening of traders' shipping enthusiasm, low vehicle arrivals at deep - processing plants, and the substitution advantage of wheat, which puts pressure on prices. In the long term, the transfer of grain rights to the channel, the reduction of imports and substitutes, and the recovery of the breeding industry may support the upward movement of corn prices. The bottom support of the corn price is strong, and attention should be paid to the shipping rhythm, substitutes, and policy. - For corn starch, the price shows a certain decline, and the profit of starch production in Shandong has decreased. [12] Pig Industry - The current spot price of pigs fluctuates slightly, and the supply pressure is limited. The market demand recovery is not good, and the supply - demand game continues. The future supply pressure may start to accumulate. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which provides some support. Attention should be paid to the impact of feed on pig prices, and the 13,000 level has strong support. The reverse - spread strategy for the 7 - 11 contracts can be considered. [16][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - Price Changes: On March 28, compared with March 27, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.60%, the futures price of Y2505 increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 4.07%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong increased by 1.90%, the futures price of P2505 increased by 2.27%, and the basis decreased by 3.64%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 0.98%, the futures price of OI505 increased by 1.04%, and the basis decreased by 14.71%. - Spread Changes: The soybean oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 22.58%, the palm oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) increased by 0.96%, and the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (05 - 09) remained unchanged. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 11.50%, and the 2505 contract spread decreased by 13.84%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread increased by 4.71%, and the 2505 contract spread increased by 2.15%. [1] Sugar Industry - Futures Market: On March 31, the price of sugar 2505 increased by 0.20%, and the price of sugar 2509 increased by 0.07%. The ICE raw sugar主力 decreased by 0.10%. The 5 - 9 spread of sugar increased by 8.60%. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.24%, and in Kunming decreased by 0.08%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) increased by 1.14%, and (out - of - quota) increased by 1.14%. - Industry Situation: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 22.25% year - on - year, the cumulative sales increased by 25.75%, the cumulative production in Guangxi increased by 18.94%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi increased by 44.95%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate increased by 2.86%, and in Guangxi increased by 2.97%. The national industrial inventory increased by 19.07%, and in Guangxi increased by 15.99%. The sugar import volume decreased by 95.92%. [3] Egg Industry - Price Changes: On March 31, the price of the egg 04 contract increased by 0.19%, and the price of the 05 contract decreased by 1.18%. The egg - laying chick price remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 4.36%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 4.49%, and the breeding profit decreased by 104.65%. - Spread and Basis: The 4 - 5 spread increased by 60.00%, and the basis increased by 43.99%. [6] Cotton Industry - Futures Market: On March 31, the price of cotton 2505 increased by 0.07%, and the price of cotton 2509 remained unchanged. The ICE US cotton主力 decreased by 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread of cotton increased by 6.45%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.59%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.35%, and the effective forecast decreased by 6.24%. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.02%, the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.03%, and the FC Index: M: 1% increased by 1.48%. [8] Meal Industry - Price Changes: On March 31, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu decreased by 1.56%, the futures price of M2505 decreased by 0.46%, and the basis decreased by 9.89%. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of RM2505 decreased by 1.27%, and the basis increased by 103.13%. - Spread and Ratio: The soybean meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 5.74%, the rapeseed meal inter - period spread (05 - 09) decreased by 6.30%. The oil - meal ratio of the spot increased by 2.19%, and the main contract increased by 1.32%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 7.94%, and the 2505 contract spread increased by 8.93%. [10] Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn: On March 31, the price of corn 2505 decreased by 0.22%, the basis increased by 7.58%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 3.70%. The arrival price at Shekou remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit remained unchanged, the CIF price decreased by 0.90%, and the import profit increased by 19.59%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 57.60%, the open interest decreased by 0.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 25.66%. - Corn Starch: The price of corn starch 2505 decreased by 0.41%, the basis increased by 52.38%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.06%, the starch - corn spread decreased by 1.56%, the profit of Shandong starch production decreased by 14.14%, the open interest increased by 0.93%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 99.38%. [12] Pig Industry - Futures Market: On March 28, the main contract basis increased by 27.91%, the price of the pig 2505 contract decreased by 2.15%, the price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.85%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 28.10%, the main contract's open interest decreased by 5.95%, and the plate pig - feed ratio decreased by 1.86%. - Spot Market: The spot price in Henan remained unchanged, in Shandong decreased by 0.47%, in Hebei remained unchanged, in Sichuan decreased by 0.55%, in Liaoning remained unchanged, in Hunan decreased by 0.48%, and in Guangdong decreased by 0.45%. The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.80%, the weekly white - strip price decreased by 100.00%, the weekly piglet price decreased by 2.89%, the weekly sow price increased by 0.03%, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.19%, the weekly self - breeding profit increased by 5.30%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 36.00%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10%. [16]
广发期货《农产品》日报-2025-04-01
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-04-01 03:24