瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-2025-04-01

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market price of industrial silicon is weakly stable, with downstream buyers mainly pressing for lower prices, and there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [2]. - From the perspective of the futures market, trading volume has decreased. Be vigilant about trading enterprises repurchasing for hedging near the cost price [2]. - Supply is expected to decrease later, demand will be maintained as needed, and inventory will remain at a high level. Today, industrial silicon has seen a volume - shrinking decline [2]. - It is recommended to operate the industrial silicon main contract 2505 in the oscillation range of 9700 - 10100, with stop - loss prices at 9600 and 10200, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the position of the main contract is 220162 lots, a decrease of 9139 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38360 lots, a decrease of 657 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 69767 lots, a decrease of 24 lots; the price difference between the May - September contracts is - 75 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 289350 tons, a decrease of 16450 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 60.4 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4.06 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 17485.81 tons, a decrease of 632.98 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 61.73%, a decrease of 1.36%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 155.2 tons, an increase of 10.2 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yongxiang Co., Ltd., plans to introduce strategic investors to increase capital by no more than 10 billion yuan. After the capital increase, the total shareholding ratio of strategic investors will not exceed 27.03% [2]. - A 7.9 - magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, mainly affecting Yunnan. As it is a major industrial silicon production area, but the current operating rate of industrial silicon is low, the impact is basically small. It depends on the subsequent impact on transportation facilities [2].