白糖月报：政策抑制糖价-2025-04-01

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Monthly Report [1] - Date: April 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - From the fundamental situation of raw sugar, the bullish factors include the early harvest in India's main producing area of Maharashtra, the end of Brazil's 24/25 sugar - crushing season with decreasing exports later, and the appreciation of the Brazilian real (though its sustainability is to be observed). The bearish factor is India's 100 - million - ton sugar export, which the market has digested. After the digestion of previous bearish factors, bullish factors support the price rebound, and raw sugar is oscillating strongly [8]. - Raw sugar has some support for domestic sugar prices, but after the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, so the upward momentum of sugar prices is insufficient [8]. - The drought in Guangxi is notable. Mtian Technology's latest forecast is that the final sugarcane output in Guangxi in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be lower than last season's 5118 million tons, possibly even below 5000 million tons, and the sugar output may only increase by 20 - 30 million tons compared with last season's 618 million tons [8]. - Another influencing factor is the import policy of syrup and pre - mixed powder. Thailand may negotiate with the Chinese government, and there is a possibility of the import of this part being liberalized in the future [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market Review - In March, the raw sugar index replicated the February trend, rising and then falling. Technically, on the weekly chart, it rebounded under pressure from the 60 - week moving average, and on the monthly chart, it fell after rising to the middle Bollinger Band, with the same K - line pattern as in February. The Zhengzhou sugar index was significantly stronger than raw sugar, showing a continuous upward trend. Technically, on the weekly chart, it rebounded and broke through the 6000 mark and then the 60 - week moving average, and on the monthly chart, it broke through the middle Bollinger Band and reached the 40 - month moving average [14]. 4.2 Spot Market Conditions - In March, the spot price of sugar rebounded significantly. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group rose from 6040 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6130 yuan/ton at the end, an increase of 90 yuan/ton; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan rose from 5905 yuan/ton to 5975 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong rose from 6115 yuan/ton to 6210 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. - In March, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus valid forecasts decreased. At the beginning of the month, there were 28325, and at the end of the month, it decreased to 27430. Among them, the registered warehouse receipts decreased from 24454 to 27410, and the valid forecasts decreased from 3871 to 20 [18]. 4.3 Futures Market Structure Analysis - In March, the futures and spot prices rose simultaneously, but the spot price increase was slightly slower than that of futures, causing the basis to shrink. The basis of the 2505 contract against the Nanning spot was 103 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 51 yuan/ton at the end. The basis of the 2509 contract was 230 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 152 yuan/ton at the end. - In March, the main 5 - month contract and the secondary main 9 - month contract of Zhengzhou sugar rose simultaneously. Speculative long - position funds shifted to the far - month contract, resulting in the 5 - month contract being weaker and the 9 - month contract being stronger. The spread between them was 127 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 101 yuan/ton at the end [21]. - In March, the inter - month spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures' main contracts changed little. The inter - market spread in July - August was 112 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is slightly profitable for raw sugar processing enterprises. As of March 25, the net long position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 52042 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest in raw sugar futures decreased significantly to 898876 contracts [22]. 4.4 Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of February 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 971.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 176.82 million tons, or 22.25%. The single - month sugar production in February was 222.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3 million tons, and the February production was at a very high level compared with the same period in previous years [29]. - As of the end of February 2025, the national cumulative sugar sales in this sugar - making season were 475.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 97.31 million tons, or 25.75%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 48.9%, a year - on - year increase of 1.36 percentage points. The single - month sugar sales in February were 101.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.52 million tons. The February sales volume was at a relatively high level compared with the same period in previous years, but it declined significantly month - on - month due to the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season [31]. - At the end of February 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory was 496.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.51 million tons, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [33]. 4.5 Import and Export Situation - In February 2025, the sugar import volume was 2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 47 million tons. As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar import volume in this sugar - making season was 154 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 151 million tons. - From January to February, the total import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 10.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.91 million tons. As of the end of February in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the total import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder was 74.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.48 million tons. After the national policy tightened, the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased significantly but did not reach zero [37]. - In March, both the domestic and foreign markets showed an upward trend, but in the second half of the month, raw sugar declined while Zhengzhou sugar remained strong. At the beginning of March, the processing profit of Brazilian quota - free raw sugar was around 752 yuan/ton, and the processing profit of out - of - quota raw sugar was around - 721 yuan/ton. At the end of March, the processing profit of Brazilian quota - free raw sugar was 967 yuan/ton, and the processing profit of out - of - quota raw sugar was about - 465 yuan/ton [37][38]. 4.6 Overseas Main Producing Countries' Production Situation - According to the data of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 182.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.81%; the sugar production was 5.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.1%; the ethanol production increased by 20.43% year - on - year to 4.42 billion liters. Sugar mills used 30.12% of the sugarcane for sugar production, compared with 27.59% in the same period of the previous season. As of March 16 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region was 6.17285 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%; the cumulative sugar production was 3998.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34%; the cumulative ethanol production was 344.24 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 4.11%; sugar mills used 48.09% of the sugarcane for sugar production, compared with 48.96% in the same period of the previous season. In the first half of March, 19 new factories started crushing, with a total of 37 factories in operation (including 22 sugarcane processing factories, 10 corn ethanol production factories, and 5 flexible factories), compared with 41 in the same period last year [45]. - The industry intelligence director of the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (UNICA) said that sugar mills began to resume crushing operations in March. At least 19 more sugar mills will start crushing in the second half of the month, but this plan may be adjusted according to the climate and operating conditions in each sugarcane - producing area [46]. - Recently, the port logistics in Brazil has gradually eased. As of the week of March 5, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 39, compared with 43 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 127.2 million tons, compared with 122.74 million tons in the previous week. Among the total sugar waiting for export in that week, the quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) was 113.85 million tons. According to the data released by Williams, the quantity of sugar waiting for export at Santos Port was 53.51 million tons, and at Paranaguá Port was 37.81 million tons [48]. - According to the data of the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of March 31, 2025, in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 2476.1 million tons. Currently, 95 sugar mills are still in operation, and production in the main sugar - producing states continues. The cumulative sugar production in Uttar Pradesh was 875 million tons, and 48 sugar mills are still in operation. Due to the increase in sugarcane yield per unit area and supply, these sugar mills are expected to operate until mid - to - late April 2025. In addition, according to the data of ISMA, the sugar yield rate improved in the second half of the season, leading to an increase in sugar production. Among the 200 sugar mills in Maharashtra, only 6 have not finished harvesting, and the cumulative sugar production is 800.06 million tons. The sugar production in Karnataka is 395.5 million tons, and only two sugar mills have not finished harvesting [49]. 4.7 Exchange Rate Factors - In March, the US dollar index declined significantly. The exchange rates of the Brazilian real and the Thai baht against the US dollar appreciated. At the end of the month, the US dollar - to - real exchange rate was 5.7416, compared with 5.7908 at the beginning of the month; the US dollar - to - baht exchange rate was 33.6956 at the end of the month, compared with 33.9856 at the beginning of the month [54]. 4.8 Future Market Forecast - From the fundamental situation of raw sugar, the bullish factor of India's production cut has been fully digested by the market, but the raw sugar price still followed the rising - then - falling trend in February. The market is hesitant to push up the price mainly because the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil is approaching. Although the previous drought may have affected the output, there has been some rainfall in the central - southern region of Brazil recently, and the possibility of increased production suppresses the raw sugar price. The future new - season sugar - crushing situation in Brazil needs to be observed [55]. - For the domestic sugar market, according to the February production and sales data, both sugar production and sales increased significantly, and the industrial inventory is at a relatively high level. The downstream food and beverage industry is in poor operating condition and is resistant to sugar price increases. The import volume in the first two months of the year dropped sharply, and the import policy for syrup and pre - mixed powder was confirmed to be tightened again, leaving sales space for domestic sugar. Zhengzhou sugar is stronger than raw sugar. If there is no obvious bearish pressure from Brazil, Zhengzhou sugar may continue to strengthen [55].