建信期货原油日报-2025-04-02

Report Date - The report was released on April 2, 2025 [2] Report Industry - The report focuses on the crude oil industry [1] Report Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply and demand are basically balanced. Geopolitically, there is an expectation of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation, but the US has strengthened sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which are expected to directly tighten supply. Oil prices are expected to bottom out and rebound, with limited demand-side drivers. It is recommended to go long on dips. Affected by the sanctions, SC may outperform the overseas market [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: WTI's opening price was $69.43, closing at $71.4, with a high of $71.83, a low of $68.81, a daily increase of 2.94%, and a trading volume of 29.35 million lots. Brent's opening price was $72.94, closing at $74.71, with a high of $75.04, a low of $72.28, a daily increase of 2.68%, and a trading volume of 48.09 million lots. SC's opening price was 540.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 556.1 yuan/barrel, with a high of 556.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 538.8 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 3.48%, and a trading volume of 11.86 million lots [6] - Operation Suggestion: Given the supply disruptions and sanctions, it is recommended to go long on dips, as SC may show stronger performance due to the sanctions [6] 2. Industry News - CPC Pipeline Disruption: The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) announced that two of its three mooring points at the terminal have stopped operating. Traders estimate that if only one mooring point is operational, loading capacity may be reduced by about 50%. The planned oil export volume for the CPC pipeline in April was 1.7 million barrels per day, or about 6.5 million tons [9] - Geopolitical News: The Kremlin stated that Russian President Putin is still willing to maintain contact with US President Trump [9] - Shandong Refinery Data: As of the week ending March 31, the crude oil arrival volume at Shandong independent refineries was 2.985 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 178,000 tons, or 5.63%. In the same period last year, the arrival volume was 1.162 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 177,000 tons, or 13.22%. The arriving crude oil was mainly medium-quality, with 680,000 tons of Russian crude oil arriving, and the arrival volume of diluted bitumen remained at zero [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Oman, and Dtd Brent, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [11][12][20]