沪镍、不锈钢早报-2025-04-02

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - 沪镍: The external market rebounded, but the price is still below the 20 - day moving average. Spot downstream transactions are light. In the stainless - steel industry chain, nickel ore and nickel iron prices remain firm, and the overall cost line is rising steadily. Stainless - steel inventory is decreasing. In the new energy sector, the February automobile production and sales data are good. Tariffs are about to be implemented, which may affect sentiment in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, the refined nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and there is still pressure. The price of Shanghai Nickel 2505 will fluctuate around 130,000 [2]. - 不锈钢: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. In the short term, the nickel ore price is rising strongly, the Indonesian ore is in short supply, the nickel iron price is rising steadily, and the cost line is firm and rising. The stainless - steel inventory is decreasing. The price of Stainless Steel 2505 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - 沪镍: On April 1, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 130,360, up 1,140 from March 31; the London Nickel was 16,170, up 225; the SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot was 130,050, down 950; the 1 Jinchuan nickel was 130,900, down 850; the 1 imported nickel was 129,250, down 1,000; the nickel bean was 128,750, down 1,100 [12]. - 不锈钢: On April 1, the stainless - steel main contract was 13,545, up 180 from March 31. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [12]. 3.2 Inventory - 沪镍: On April 1, the LME inventory was 199,020, an increase of 300; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 27,927, an increase of 1,181. As of March 28, the上期所 nickel inventory was 36,925 tons, with the futures inventory at 26,799 tons [14][15]. - 不锈钢: On April 1, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 199,921, a decrease of 841. As of March 28, the Wuxi inventory was 666,500 tons, the Foshan inventory was 338,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,099,400 tons, a decrease of 22,100 tons compared with the previous period [18][19]. 3.3 Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - On April 1, the price of red clay nickel ore (Ni1.5% CIF) was 58.5 dollars/wet ton, unchanged from March 31; the price of red clay nickel ore (Ni0.9% CIF) was 32 dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the high - nickel (8 - 12) was 1,030.5 yuan/nickel point, up 1; the low - nickel (below 2) was 3,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. 3.4 Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 13,737, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,270, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 17,317 [24]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price was 131,215 yuan/ton [27]. 3.6 Factors Affecting the Market - Negative factors: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - Positive factors: New energy vehicle data continue to perform well, with February production and sales increasing year - on - year; nickel ore and nickel iron prices are firm, and the cost line is slowly rising; tariff policies are about to be implemented [7].