Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production while the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in March was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish. Copper inventories increased on April 1st, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased last week, both being bearish. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing, both being bullish. With the Fed slowing down rate cuts, high inventories suppressing copper prices, and trade tariffs causing supply concerns, copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term and then fall [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the March manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - Basis: Bearish. The spot price is 79985 with a basis of - 445, showing a discount to futures [2]. - Inventory: Bearish. On April 1st, copper inventory increased by 1900 to 213275 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 21032 tons to 235296 tons last week [2]. - Disk: Bullish. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising [2]. - Main Position: Bullish. The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term and then fall due to the Fed slowing down rate cuts, high inventories suppressing prices, and trade tariff - related supply concerns [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: Not clearly stated, only mentioned that domestic policy is loose [3]. - 利空: Not clearly stated, only mentioned that the trade war is escalating [3]. Spot - Information about spot includes the place, middle price, price change, and inventory type, total quantity, and increase or decrease, but specific data is not fully provided [6]. 期现价差 - The foreign market is in a discount structure, while the domestic market is at a premium [7]. Exchange Inventory - The exchange inventory is in a state of destocking [10]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data for production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].
大越期货沪铜早报-2025-04-02
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-04-02 01:21