大越期货尿素早报-2025-04-02

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report from Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [2] - The analyst is Jin Zebin, with contact information 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - The urea market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger today. The short - term trend of the main contract is upward, with high daily production, inventory reduction, and improved demand recently [4] - The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and the marginal change in demand. The main risk is the change in export policy [5] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The urea futures market has been volatile and strengthening recently. Supply: high daily production and operating rate, significant inventory reduction, and the inventory level has returned to a neutral position compared to previous years. Demand: the compound fertilizer operating rate in industrial demand is good, the melamine operating rate has declined, and agricultural demand has improved recently and is expected to remain so before Tomb - Sweeping Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to low - level buying opportunities. The spot price of the deliverable is 1940 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2505 contract is 11, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 99.8 million tons (-17.1), which is a bearish factor [4] Futures Market - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4] Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger today, with high daily production, inventory reduction, and improved demand [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and marginal recovery of demand. Bearish factors: high inventory and ample supply [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - Spot delivery product price: 1940 (-10); Shandong spot price: 1940 (-10); Henan spot price: 1970 (0); FOB China price: 1955 [6] Futures Market - UR01 price: 1848 (20); UR05 price: 1929 (57); UR09 price: 1859 (33); UR2505 contract basis: 11 (-67) [6] Inventory - Warehouse receipts: 5231 (-129); UR comprehensive inventory: 99.8 million tons; UR factory inventory: 86.8 million tons; UR port inventory: 13.0 million tons [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]