大越期货豆粕早报-2025-04-02

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the Sino - US tariff war, South American soybean harvest weather, and Brazilian soybean production expectations. It is expected to be in a short - term volatile and slightly bullish pattern, with the bottom supported but the upward space limited [8][10]. - The soybean market is also influenced by similar factors. The domestic soybean has certain support at the bottom due to the high cost of imported soybeans and the national reserve purchase expectations, but the market is under pressure from the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11][13]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - Soybean meal M2505: Operate within the range of 2820 - 2880 intraday [9]. - Soybean A2505: Operate within the range of 3900 - 4000 intraday [12]. 2. Recent News - After the Sino - US tariff war, the US soybeans are in a volatile consolidation. The weather in South American soybean - producing areas is still variable, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating. The US soybean market is waiting for further guidance on US soybean exports, South American soybean harvest weather, and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [15]. - The US bio - policy agreement supports the short - term rebound of the US soybean market. The arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high level in April. After the Spring Festival, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are low in the short term, and the short - term spot price of soybean meal is relatively strong due to the low supply [15]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal is weak after the Spring Festival, but the tight supply supports the price expectation. Driven by the US soybean trend, the soybean meal may maintain a volatile pattern in the short and medium term [15]. - The low - level inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal has rebounded, and the falling spot price suppresses the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in South American soybean - producing areas and the expected high yield are intertwined, and the soybean meal will remain volatile in the short term, waiting for the clear yield of South American soybeans and the further trend of US soybeans [15]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Soybean Meal Bullish Factors: Short - term low arrival of imported soybeans in China, low - level inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in South American soybean - producing areas [16]. - Soybean Meal Bearish Factors: The arrival of imported soybeans in China will increase to a high level in April, the progress of Brazilian soybean harvest is advancing, and the expected high yield continues [16]. - Soybean Bullish Factors: The high cost of imported US soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expectation of national reserve soybean purchase supports the domestic soybean price [17]. - Soybean Bearish Factors: The continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppress the price expectation of soybeans [17]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 3020, with a basis of 216, showing a premium over the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 74.8 million tons, a 0.16% decrease from last week and a 139.13% increase from the same period last year [10]. - Soybean: The oil - mill soybean inventory is 247.92 million tons, a 1.54% decrease from last week and a 20.37% decrease from the same period last year [13]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the short positions of the main force have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10]. - For soybeans, the short positions of the main force have increased, and the funds have flowed out [13].