大越期货甲醇早报-2025-04-02

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of methanol at home and abroad is gradually recovering, and the subsequent supplementary volume of domestic production in the mainland and overseas imports will increase over time. With coal prices remaining low, coal - to - methanol production is profitable, and the mid - and upstream are motivated to sell at high prices. From the demand side, the main consumption market in northern Shandong is slightly weak, and most downstream products such as acetic acid and formaldehyde follow rigid demand. With the approaching Tomb - Sweeping Festival and general oil product demand, tight transportation capacity may drive freight rates up. Overall, in the game between supply and demand, the domestic methanol market is expected to be slightly weak this week, with local areas at risk of callback; the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate mainly, and MA2505 should be operated in the range of 2470 - 2525 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The supply of methanol at home and abroad is recovering, and the market is expected to be slightly weak this week with local callback risks; neutral [4]. - Basis: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2590 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract is 104, and the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [4]. - Inventory: As of March 27, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 60.54 tons, a decrease of 8.43 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 5.47 tons to 38.34 tons; bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average; bearish [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [4]. - Expectation: The methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week, and MA2505 should be operated in the range of 2470 - 2525 [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Long Factors: Some plants have stopped or have maintenance plans; the import volume in March is expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased more than expected; olefin production is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand has entered the peak season; methanol plant inventory in production areas is tight; the central bank plans to cut reserve requirements and interest rates, which is beneficial to the commodity and financial markets [6]. - Short Factors: Some previously shut - down plants have restart plans; the operating rate of refineries in northern Shandong is low; the temperature in Iran has warmed up, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of local plants; although the price of methanol has risen recently, it is difficult to pass on costs, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream; upstream plants are actively selling under high profits [6]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in various regions has shown different degrees of change. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 3.67% week - on - week, while the prices in Shandong, Hebei, etc. have remained unchanged [7][8]. - Cost and Profit: The profits of different methanol production processes vary. Coal - to - methanol profit has decreased by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the profits of natural gas - to - methanol and coke - oven gas - to - methanol have remained stable or increased [20]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, and the Southwest have also decreased to varying degrees [7]. - Inventory: The inventory in East and South China ports has decreased. The total inventory in East and South China ports has decreased by 8.43 tons to 60.54 tons, and the available and tradable inventory in coastal areas has decreased by 5.47 tons to 38.34 tons [4]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, planned shutdown, or production - reduction states, including plants in the Northwest, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions [55]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting, maintenance, or normal operation, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries [56]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are in maintenance, shutdown, or normal operation states, including plants in the Northwest, East China, and other regions [57].