大越期货工业硅期货早报-2025-04-02

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand continued to be sluggish, with high inventories in various segments. The cost support has risen, and the 2505 contract is expected to oscillate between 9720 - 9865. The overall situation is affected by capacity mismatch, leading to a supply - demand imbalance that is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply is increasing, and although the demand for some downstream products has short - term fluctuations, the overall demand shows a declining trend. The 2506 contract is expected to oscillate between 43320 - 43800 [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 80,000 tons, a 1.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 68,000 tons, a 15.00% decrease from the previous week, remaining in a low - demand state [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 604,000 tons, a 2.20% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 266,550 tons, a 2.27% decrease; major port inventory was 139,000 tons, a 2.96% increase [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 2,749 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the dry season increased [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule has decreased, approaching the historical average. Demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2505 contract is expected to oscillate between 9720 - 9865 [6]. - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 21,400 tons, a 0.94% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in March was 94,600 tons, a 4.99% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.05GW, a 9.29% decrease from the previous week, with a 1.01% decrease in inventory. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components shows different trends, with battery cells in a loss state and components in a profitable state [9]. - Expectation: Supply production continues to increase, and demand shows a long - term decline. The 2506 contract is expected to oscillate between 43320 - 43800 [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon - Futures Contracts: Different contracts showed slight price changes, such as the 01 contract at 10,520 yuan, a 0.14% decrease from the previous day [16]. - Spot Prices: The price of East China non - oxygen 553 silicon remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: Various inventory data, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different trends of increase or decrease [16]. - Production: The weekly production of sample enterprises was 40,505 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week [16]. - Polysilicon - Futures Contracts: Different contracts showed price fluctuations, such as the 06 contract at 43,560 yuan, a 0.23% increase from the previous day [18]. - Spot Prices: The price of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 42 yuan/kg [18]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory was 247,000 tons, a 2.37% decrease from the previous week [18]. - Production: The weekly silicon wafer production was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week [18].