《特殊商品》日报-2025-04-02

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View It is expected that rubber prices will be under pressure in the short term, but considering the rubber supply cycle and cost support, one can try to go long with a light position in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 yuan, and pay attention to the weather and tree conditions in the producing areas [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex decreased by 0.31%, the basis of whole latex decreased by 24.19%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged. The price of cup rubber decreased by 2.35%, and the price of glue remained unchanged. The price of natural rubber blocks in Xishuangbanna decreased by 1.36%, and the price of glue remained unchanged [1]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.49%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 18.75% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In February, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 37.99%, Indonesia's decreased by 0.50%, India's decreased by 31.48%, and China's production in December decreased by 51.44%. The weekly tire开工率 of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.12%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 0.96%. In December, domestic tire production increased by 2.04%. In February, tire exports decreased by 30.93%, and natural rubber imports decreased by 14.50% [1]. - Inventory Change: Bonded area inventory increased by 0.50%, and the futures inventory of natural rubber in the factory warehouse of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 8.91%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao have different degrees of change [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For soda ash, it is expected that the futures price will continue to be weakly volatile without positive support. For glass, considering the low absolute price, most enterprises are in a loss state, and there is an expected seasonal recovery in demand, so a low - buying strategy can be adopted for near - month contracts [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Glass - related Price and Spread: The prices of glass in North China, Central China, and the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased, while the prices in East China and South China remained unchanged. The 05 basis decreased by 74.58% [3]. - Soda Ash - related Price and Spread: The price of soda ash in North China decreased by 3.13%, while the prices in other regions remained unchanged. The prices of the 2505 and 2509 contracts increased, and the 05 basis decreased by 28.63% [3]. - Supply: In March, the soda ash开工率 increased by 5.82%, and the weekly output increased by 5.81%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.32%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - Inventory: In March, the glass factory inventory decreased by 3.52%, the soda ash factory inventory decreased by 3.42%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 1.16%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [3]. - Real Estate Data: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate are - 2.88%, - 20.51%, 5.27%, and 1.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Although the industrial silicon market still faces high inventory and warehouse receipt pressure, the production cuts of major large - scale enterprises will help balance supply and demand and raise the price center. The price fluctuation range is 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. If production cuts lead to inventory reduction, the price center will move up, but the upside space is limited [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis of the Main Contract: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased slightly [5]. - Inter - monthly Spread: The 2504 - 2505 spread increased by 27.27%, the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 50.00%, and the spreads of other contracts had different degrees of change [5]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In March, the national industrial silicon production increased by 18.20%, Xinjiang's increased by 26.57%, Yunnan's decreased by 14.58%, and Sichuan's increased by 170.59%. The开工率 of the national and Xinjiang increased, while that of Yunnan decreased slightly, and Sichuan's increased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 5.81%, the production of polysilicon increased by 6.66%, the production of aluminum alloy decreased by 4.00%, and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 15.82% [5]. - Inventory Change: The factory inventory in Xinjiang and Yunnan decreased, the social inventory increased by 2.20%, the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.08%, and the non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 5.49% [5]. Group 4: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The polysilicon futures price is strongly volatile. The current price has limited downside space, and with the support of warehouse receipt demand, long positions at 42,000 - 43,000 yuan/ton can be held [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of N - type polysilicon, cauliflower - type polysilicon, and granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 6.85%, and the basis of cauliflower - type material decreased by 250.00%. The prices of various silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [6]. - Futures Price and Inter - monthly Spread: The PS2506 price increased by 0.23%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 5.51%, the PS2507 - PS2508 spread increased by 90.00%, and the spreads of other contracts had different degrees of change [6]. - Fundamental Data: The weekly silicon wafer production decreased by 9.30%, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry decreased by 0.38%. In March, the polysilicon production increased by 6.66%. In February, the polysilicon import volume increased by 35.09%, the export volume increased by 43.18%, and the net export volume decreased by 18.28%. In March, the silicon wafer production increased by 5.05%. In February, the silicon wafer import volume increased by 139.15%, the export volume remained unchanged, the net export volume decreased by 11.93%, and the demand decreased by 14.85% [6]. - Inventory Change: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.37%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.02% [6].