大越期货沥青期货早报-2025-04-02

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in March 2025 was 2.386 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 278,000 tons (13.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons (0.3%). This week, domestic sample capacity utilization decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand for various types of asphalt is below the historical average, with the overall demand affected by the off - season and falling short of expectations [8]. - The cost side reveals that the daily asphalt processing profit is negative but increasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support asphalt prices in the short term [9]. - The basis shows that on April 1, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3,620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - In terms of inventory, social inventory is increasing, while factory and port inventories are decreasing [9]. - The trading volume shows that the MA20 is upward, and the 06 contract price closed above the MA20, which is a positive signal [9]. - The main positions show that the main positions are net long, but the number of long positions is decreasing [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract oscillating within the range of 3,625 - 3,685 yuan during the day [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: In March 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production was 2.386 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 278,000 tons (13.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons (0.3%). This week, the sample capacity utilization was 34.9824%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 466,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 818,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.24%. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand: The开工 rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工 rate was 26.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工 rate was 8.3%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工 rate was 4.0329%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point; the road - modified asphalt开工 rate was 19%, a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工 rate was 28%, a month - on - month decrease of 4 percentage points [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 820.65 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.90%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 891.6571 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support asphalt prices in the short term [9]. - Basis: On April 1, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3,620 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 06 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.52%; factory inventory was 844,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.55%; port diluted asphalt inventory was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00% [9]. - Trading Volume: The MA20 is upward, and the 06 contract price closed above the MA20 [9]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net long, but the number of long positions is decreasing [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2506 contract oscillating within the range of 3,625 - 3,685 yuan during the day [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, inventories, production, and trading volume of different asphalt contracts, as well as the profits of asphalt processing and delayed coking, and the changes in the number of registered warehouse receipts [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: It presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt bases from 2020 to 2025 [18][19]. - Spread: It shows the historical trends of the spreads between different asphalt contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, and their ratios from 2020 to <2025>[21][22][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][40]. - Supply - side Analysis: It covers various aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil production, local refinery asphalt production,开工 rate, and maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [43][45][48]. - Inventory Analysis: It analyzes the changes in exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 to 2025 [64][69][72]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [75][76]. - Demand - side Analysis: It includes the production of petroleum coke, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工 rate (by type and use), and downstream开工 conditions from 2019 to 2025 [81][84][87]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to April 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108].