Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current main contradiction in the lithium carbonate market is the oversupply situation. The previous decline in lithium prices has led to a downward shift in the pricing center of the mining end, weakening the cost support. The market trading atmosphere is relatively cold, and downstream material manufacturers mainly focus on customer supply, with procurement mainly to meet rigid demand replenishment, resulting in stable spot prices. The option market shows a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 52,914 hands, a decrease of 6,425 hands; the position of the main contract was 205,165 hands, an increase of 1,439 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 21,768 hands/ton, an increase of 2,633 hands [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 793 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 8,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,391 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 35,690 tons, an increase of 560 tons; the monthly import volume was 12,327.97 tons, a decrease of 7,794.24 tons; the monthly export volume was 417.13 tons, an increase of 18.53 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 42%, a decrease of 1%; the monthly output of power batteries was 100,300 MWh, a decrease of 7,500 MWh; the prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, and various ternary materials were unchanged [2]. - Downstream and Application Situation: The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 40%, a decrease of 4%; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 57%, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 888,000 vehicles, a decrease of 127,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 892,000 vehicles, a decrease of 52,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 40.31%, an increase of 1.35%; the cumulative sales volume increased by 628,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume was 131,000 vehicles, a decrease of 19,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume increased by 100,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 15.19%, an increase of 0.72%; the 40 - day average volatility was 12.78%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - Option Situation: The total subscription position was 200,449 contracts, a decrease of 611 contracts; the total put position was 60,912 contracts, an increase of 971 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of total positions was 30.39%, an increase of 0.5753%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.16%, an increase of 0.0081% [2]. 3.2 Industry News - In March, new energy vehicle manufacturers released their "report cards". BYD's sales reached 377,400 vehicles in March, and the cumulative sales in the first quarter exceeded one million. XPeng's delivery volume reached 33,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 268%. Leapmotor topped the delivery list of new car - making forces, with a 1.5 - fold year - on - year increase in March delivery volume to 37,000 vehicles. Li Auto and AION's delivery or sales volumes also exceeded 30,000 vehicles. Xiaomi Auto's delivery exceeded 29,000 units [2]. - From January to February, more than 1.07 million cars were traded in the old - for - new program, driving new car sales of 116.5 billion yuan. The retail volume of domestic passenger cars increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with a 26% year - on - year increase in February [2]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in March was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from February, reaching a new high since December 2024, indicating that the production and operation activities of the manufacturing industry continued to expand at an accelerated pace [2]. - The US "reciprocal tariff" is about to be implemented on April 2. The EU has a strong counter - measure plan. The tariff may push up inflation and unemployment, posing challenges to the Fed [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce held a teleconference on promoting the old - for - new program of consumer goods, requiring accelerated progress and promoting the widespread use of intelligent terminal consumer goods [2]. 3.3 Market Analysis - Price and Position: The main contract of lithium carbonate weakened with a 1.4% decline at the close. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened [2]. - Option Analysis: The put - to - call ratio of positions was 30.39%, an increase of 0.5753%. The option market was dominated by subscription positions, with a bullish market sentiment and a slightly increased implied volatility [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were below the 0 axis, and the green bars expanded [2].
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-2025-04-02
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-02 09:13